BTC/ETH Morning Pre-Judgment | 2026.07.07 07:50

Yesterday's Review: Yesterday, BTC's key watershed was at 63100~63300. The actual 24-hour low was around 61250. After breaking below during the session, it recovered near 64000 and probed to 64659, indicating that the "defend on break, watch for recovery on reclaim" scenario partially played out. However, the 64600~65000 range has not yet been stably opened, so it cannot be treated as a strong one-sided reversal. ETH's key watershed yesterday was 1765~1775. The actual low was around 1727, after which it pulled back to near 1800 and tested 1832. Support was lost and then reclaimed, with the conclusion partially realized. For altcoins, the suggestion yesterday was to trade less. The broader market saw increased volatility, and ETH remained under pressure after its rise, consistent with a cautious observation approach.

Today's Overall Judgment: Both BTC and ETH are in a state of ongoing recovery after a dip, but they are now approaching short-term resistance zones again. BTC's current price is about 64079, with a 24-hour gain of about 0.8%, within a range of 61250~64659; ETH's current price is about 1800, with a 24-hour gain of about 0.8%, within a range of 1727~1832. On the 1-hour timeframe, both are above the moving averages, but the MACD red bars have started to shrink; on the 4-hour timeframe, BTC's strength is more evident, while ETH is still stuck near the daily MA50 and Bollinger upper band. Today, altcoins are upgraded from "trade less" to "cautious offensive observation," provided that BTC holds 63600~63800 and ETH holds 1785~1800.

BTC: On the 1-hour timeframe, the price is above the MA20 at about 63139 and the MA50 at about 63005. The Bollinger Bands range from 61598 to 64680. The price is near the upper band with weakening momentum, so chasing highs in the short term is not advisable. On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is above the MA20 at about 62929 and the MA50 at about 61218. The Bollinger upper band at about 63901 has been broken through. The MACD has turned from weak to strong, indicating that the recovery after the dip is not deteriorating. On the daily timeframe, the price stands above the MA20 at about 61918 but remains below the MA50 at about 66482. On the weekly timeframe, it remains below the MA20. On the monthly timeframe, it is in a low-level recovery. Short-term support is at 63800~64000, with strong support at 63100~63300; short-term resistance is at 64600~65000, with strong resistance at 65600~66500. Today's key watershed is 63600~63800. If held, it will continue to test higher; if it falls back below, it will first look for a pullback confirmation.

ETH: On the 1-hour timeframe, the price is above the MA20 at about 1776 and the MA50 at about 1774. The Bollinger Bands range from 1736 to 1817. The price is currently oscillating near the upper band, with the MACD red bars shortening, so caution is needed for a push-up and pullback. On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is above the MA20 at about 1772 and the MA50 at about 1681, but the Bollinger upper band at about 1803 is near the current price. The area above 1800 is still a testing zone. On the daily timeframe, the price stands above the MA20 at about 1676 but is close to the MA50 at about 1802 and the Bollinger upper band at about 1835. If it cannot hold above 1830 with volume, altcoin elasticity tends to cool down. Short-term support is at 1785~1800, with strong support at 1765~1775; short-term resistance is at 1815~1835, with strong resistance at 1860~1880. Today's key watershed is 1785~1800. If held, the recovery trend continues; if broken, expectations for altcoin offensive moves will be lowered.

Today's Altcoin Linkage Judgment: Altcoins today are cautiously offensive, not a full-scale chase. If BTC holds 63600~63800 and digests the resistance above 64600, while ETH simultaneously stabilizes above 1800 and challenges 1830~1835, then strong altcoins may have room for catch-up gains. Conversely, if BTC falls back below 63600 or ETH falls back below 1785, altcoins are likely to shift from catch-up gains to declines, with weak coins prioritizing defense. When ETH is not significantly stronger than BTC, altcoin elasticity is usually unstable.

Public Version Operating Principles: Do not chase highs today; only look for key level confirmations. Before BTC holds 63600~63800, do not rush to be bearish, but without a valid breakout above 65000, it should not be treated as a strong trend. For ETH, focus on 1785~1800 and 1830~1835. If the watershed is broken, reduce positions first to defend; if key resistance is reclaimed, then look for continued recovery. For the complete observation pool points and single-coin strategies, refer to the subscription briefing or group documents.

Risk Warning: The above content is only a market forecast and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; pay attention to positions and stop-losses.