Only those who have truly soaked in candlesticks, been pricked by needles, and also nailed the turning points can catch what I’m about to say next — no mysticism, just the essence.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, every bar on the price chart — on the surface it's a game of buying and selling, but deep down it's the "trend" moving in cycles.

This cycle, put simply, is one sentence: any unidirectional movement will kill itself at the extreme and then turn to the opposite direction.

This is not something I made up; it's the underlying principle common to all things.

Look at nature: when water is full, it overflows; when the moon is full, it wanes; when the heat peaks, it turns cool.

The market is more ruthless — it compresses this "reversal of the extreme" temperament into each candlestick, replaying it repeatedly on the time axis.

So the movement pattern of candlesticks is never linear; it's a back-and-forth hitting the top and bottom within an old equilibrium, until both sides have no strength left, then it uses a high-volume wick or long body to break the cage and move to the next larger or smaller range to continue hitting.

Note: those wicks with volume, spikes, explosive bullish/bearish candles, are often just traces of emotional venting, and are not naturally the real top or bottom — the real top and bottom come from exhaustion of strength, not from explosive strength.

This difference determines whether you die in chasing rises and cutting losses, or survive by buying low and selling high.

Since the rule is "back-and-forth within a range," there is only one viable way to operate:

When near the upper edge, think about shorting; when near the lower edge, think about longing. Don't chase longs at the top — that's digging graves for bulls. Don't chase shorts at the bottom — that's giving funerals for bears.

In the middle, go with the flow; at the two ends, fire in the opposite direction — this is going with the trend of the cycle, not with the trend of emotions.

As for how to determine the "real major top or bottom," it's not about looking at a single indicator or guessing news; it's about observing whether after the range is repeatedly tested, the power of each rebound/retracement is weaker than the last — when it weakens to a critical point, the new direction emerges by itself.

I'll break it down in detail next time.

Those who understand will naturally know what I'm saying. Those who don't can think I'm chanting sutras.

(All of the above are bones I bought with real money, not chicken soup on book covers.)