US stock futures collectively rose, can the crypto market continue its rebound? Macro resonance logic analysis

In the early morning of July 6, Beijing time, during the initial Asia-Pacific trading session, US stock index futures across the board surged. Nasdaq 100 index futures jumped 1.45%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.5%, and Dow Jones index futures edged up 0.04%. The precious metals market also strengthened in tandem: spot silver rose 1.2% to $63.11 per ounce, and spot gold rose 0.37% to $4,189.54 per ounce.

Meanwhile, the crypto market has also shown clear signs of recovery over the past week. Bitcoin has held steady above $63,000, Ethereum tested the $1,800 level, and the total crypto market capitalization rebounded to approximately $2.249 trillion. The strong rebound in US stock index futures together with the synchronized strength of crypto assets is sending a clear signal to the market: the return of risk appetite is forming resonance across asset classes.

What Is the Direct Driving Force Behind the Broad Rally in US Stock Index Futures

The US stock market was closed last Friday for the Independence Day holiday, but during the holiday, the futures market already moved out a rebound in advance. The further rally in the early trading session on July 6 essentially reflects the concentrated release of optimistic sentiment that accumulated during the holiday period in the early Asia-Pacific session.

From direct triggers, the June US nonfarm payroll employment data came in weaker than expected, significantly easing market concerns about near-term monetary tightening. The marginal cooling in the labor market provides the Federal Reserve with more policy room to keep interest rates unchanged. After attending the European Central Bank’s Sintra conference, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explicitly said that the Fed will not raise rates this year, and the possibility of a rate hike in July has been essentially ruled out.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ trading desk noted in its latest report that it has captured initial “buy-the-dip” signals for US momentum stocks, suggesting a tactical rebound foundation for the momentum factor. Data shows that since the peak, the momentum factor has already cumulatively fallen 24%, marking the largest drawdown since the first quarter of 2023 and significantly exceeding the historical average drawdown of about 12%. Goldman Sachs believes that the magnified decline in this round is mainly driven by structural factors such as low liquidity and weak summer trading conditions, rather than a fundamental change in the underlying trend.

In addition, the continued slide in international oil prices has also eased market worries about upside inflation risks. As of 7:20 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures fell 0.52% to $68.33 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to $71.68 per barrel. OPEC+ has agreed to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August, further suppressing upside space for oil prices. The drop in oil prices directly lowered market inflation expectations and term premiums, providing additional valuation support for risk assets.

Why Did Nasdaq Futures Lead the Rally Among the Three Major US Stock Index Futures?

The 1.45% gain in Nasdaq futures clearly outperformed the 0.5% rise in S&P 500 futures and the 0.04% uptick in Dow Jones futures. This divergence itself conveys abundant market information.

The high-beta nature of technology stocks makes them the most direct beneficiaries when risk appetite returns. With macro uncertainty declining and policy paths becoming clearer, capital first flows into the more elastic technology sector. Last week, even though chip stocks experienced violent swings—after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged by more than 6% on Wednesday, it fell another 5.45% on Thursday—the market’s confidence in the core AI narrative did not fundamentally waver.

Goldman Sachs specifically pointed out that the market’s doubts about Meta’s return on capital expenditures triggered by its transition to cloud business follows a similar path to past concerns that have impacted market sentiment. However, the core AI narrative has not yet undergone a structural change substantial enough to drive a deeper correction. Investors are reassessing valuations along the AI supply chain, but optimism toward software and platform companies remains.

Another clue worth noting is the strong performance from South Korean chip giants. SK Hynix surged 10.88%, while Samsung Electronics rose 8.22%. SK Hynix expects to be formally listed on the Nasdaq this week, an event that could further boost market sentiment for the semiconductor and memory sectors.

Why Did the Crypto Market Strengthen in Sync with US Stock Index Futures?

In this round of the rally, crypto assets have exhibited highly synchronized characteristics with US stock index futures. Over seven days, Bitcoin rose 7.9%, while Ethereum rose 15.1%, with the latter clearly outperforming the former. The strength of high-volatility assets is often seen as a leading signal of risk appetite.

The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks—especially the Nasdaq index—has recently risen to high levels. Such high correlation indicates that, in the face of macro risks, crypto assets no longer carry the attribute of “safe-haven assets,” but instead increasingly behave like high-volatility risk assets. When investors flock simultaneously to technology stocks and crypto assets under a “Risk-On” mode, both rise in sync; under a “Risk-Off” environment, these assets are withdrawn indiscriminately.

Capital flow over the past week further confirms this logic. During the US stock market holiday, gold and cryptocurrencies strengthened in tandem—spot gold rebounded 2.16% for the full week to $4,176.94 per ounce, and spot silver rose 5.52%—reflecting that capital continued actively seeking risk exposure while traditional markets were closed. Bitcoin is currently around $63,600, Ethereum is at $1,784.58, and total crypto market capitalization rose 1% over 24 hours to $2.249 trillion.

However, this linkage also means crypto assets face dual risks: they are driven not only by their own on-chain narrative, but also by macro policy and US stock market movements. When the macro environment is disrupted, the pullback in crypto assets often exceeds that of traditional risk assets.

What Signal Does the Early Rebound in Gold and Crypto Convey?

One notable phenomenon is that the rebound in gold and crypto assets has preceded further gains in US stock index futures. During the US stock market holiday, Nasdaq 100 futures had already risen against the trend by more than 1%, while gold rebounded over the week and broke a four-day losing streak.

This “leading indicator” effect conveys at least three signals.

First, capital is searching for high-volatility outlets. During the window when the US spot stock market is closed, crypto assets—trading 7×24 hours—become the primary channel for capital to express risk appetite. The price discovery function of crypto assets appears especially prominent during non-US stock trading hours.

Second, the geopolitical risk premium is receding. The weekend phone call between Russia and Ukraine did not cool tensions; instead, both sides escalated attacks against each other. But the Middle East risk premium receded early. Brent crude oil still fell 0.66% for the week to $72.12 per barrel, extending a four-week losing streak and setting the longest streak in nearly two years. Geopolitics’ suppression of risk assets is weakening at the margin.

Third, the market is pricing in clarity on the Fed’s policy path. Gold, as a traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, typically rebounds ahead of a full recovery in risk assets. Gold’s move toward the $4,200 per ounce level indicates that the market is digesting in advance the policy signals that this week’s Fed meeting minutes may bring.

What Determines Whether the Return of Risk Appetite Can Sustain?

The rebound in US stock index futures and the synchronized recovery in the crypto market, at its core, are pricing the same macro narrative: the Fed’s rate-hike cycle has ended, and a rate-cut cycle may begin within the year.

Citi expects the Fed to remain on hold in July and September, with its first 25-basis-point rate cut at the October 28 meeting, followed by another 25-basis-point cut in December. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, maintains its baseline forecast of no rate hikes for the full year. The common view between the two institutions is that there is no risk of a rate hike in the near term.

However, the sustainability of the rebound hinges on three key variables.

The first variable is the Fed meeting minutes this Wednesday. This is the first set of meeting minutes chaired by Warsh. The June dot plot has already shown that half of the participants lean toward a rate hike within the year. The core question the market is focused on is whether the minutes contain more hawkish wording than what the market expects. If the minutes cement a bias toward rate hikes, high-volatility assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum could be the first to show pullback signals.

The second variable is the quality of US equities’ Q2 earnings. This week, companies such as Fast Retailing, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines will be among the first to release their earnings reports, officially kicking off the Q2 earnings season. If corporate profits fall short of expectations, it could interrupt the current process of risk appetite repair.

The third variable is the liquidity environment. Goldman Sachs cautioned that momentum factor positioning remains highly crowded. If the deleveraging trend continues, the maximum potential drawdown may still be twice the magnitude of the current decline. The market is currently in the early stage of clearing momentum strategy positions, and what happens next will depend on the interplay between liquidity conditions and the pace of sentiment repair.

What Changes Are Happening to the Linkage Logic Between Crypto and US Stocks?

The linkage between crypto and US stocks is not fixed. From a structural perspective, their relationship is evolving from “closely tracking” to “dynamic differentiation.”

In the short term, macro factors remain the core variables driving both. Macro indicators such as interest-rate expectations, employment data, and inflation trends have a highly consistent impact on crypto assets and US stocks. As long as the Fed’s policy path is not fully clear, this high correlation is likely to persist.

But in the medium term, the drivers behind the two are diverging. US stocks are increasingly relying on actual corporate earnings and the realization of AI industry trends; crypto assets, on the other hand, are more driven by on-chain narratives, ecosystem development, and capital flow directions. This suggests a potential future scenario of “US stocks oscillating while crypto trades independently.”

Another structural change that cannot be ignored is that crypto trading infrastructure is increasingly bearing more traditional asset trading. Gate officially launched real US stock trading services on June 1, 2026. Users can directly use USDT on the platform to trade stocks and ETF assets in major US securities markets. This trend implies that crypto users are gaining more diversified asset-allocation tools, and it also means that capital flows on crypto platforms will increasingly be influenced by the performance of US stock markets.

From a broader viewpoint, crypto is shifting from “trading narratives” to “following the US stock market.” When exchanges introduce US stock contracts and tokenized US stocks, it essentially binds the crypto market more tightly to traditional financial markets. This binding brings convenience for cross-asset allocation, but it also means the crypto market will be exposed more directly to macro-driven volatility.

What Key Risk Events Will the Market Face This Week?

This week is packed with macro events, and multiple key developments could recalibrate the market’s direction.

On Tuesday, SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index. From listing to index inclusion, the speed will break records, and passive funds tracking the index will be forced to buy. On the same day, the Office of the United States Trade Representative will hold hearings regarding tariffs to be imposed on 60 economies. The Sun Valley Annual Summit also kicks off on the same day. OpenAI has set the release date of GPT-5.6 to coincide with the expiration of Claude Fable 5’s quota plan—competition among AI models has escalated to the level of release schedules.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release its June meeting minutes. This is the first set of minutes after Warsh took office, and the market will focus on whether there is more hawkish wording than expected. On the same day, two voting members will deliver public speeches.

Around Friday, SK Hynix’s US ADR is expected to list, with an offering size exceeding 450 billion Korean won. This scale is enough to recall Alibaba’s US IPO that once refreshed records.

The logic for the bulls is straightforward: futures markets have already rebounded in advance during the market closure period, and gold and crypto have strengthened in sync, indicating that risk appetite has not been disrupted by geopolitical and tariff noise. The bears’ concerns are equally clear: with the rate-hike minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX’s entry into the Nasdaq all stacking up in the same week, any misstep in any of the components could cause the optimistic sentiment accumulated during the holiday to fall flat.

Summary

The broad rally across all three US stock index futures on July 6—Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.45%, S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures up 0.04%—is the result of weak nonfarm data easing tightening concerns, falling oil prices suppressing inflation expectations, and the combined effect of optimistic sentiment accumulated during the holiday period. In the same time window, the crypto market also strengthened in sync: Bitcoin held above $63,000, Ethereum tested $1,800, and total market capitalization rebounded to $2.249 trillion, further confirming the cross-asset resonance of risk appetite.

However, the sustainability of the rebound will face tests from multiple macro events this week. The wording in the Fed meeting minutes, the quality of the US Q2 earnings reports, and the evolution of the liquidity environment will all determine how far this “macro resonance” can go. The linkage logic between crypto and US stocks is evolving from short-term high synchronization to medium-term dynamic differentiation. While both share macro pricing factors, each also has its own independent driving narrative.

FAQ

Q1: Why did Nasdaq futures rise far more than S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures?

Nasdaq futures’ bigger rise reflects the high-beta nature of technology stocks. When risk appetite returns, capital flows first into the more elastic technology sector. In addition, market confidence in the core AI narrative has not fundamentally wavered, and strong performances from chip stocks such as SK Hynix also provide extra support for the technology sector.

Q2: Is the synchronized strength between the crypto market and US stock index futures a coincidence or a trend?

The core drivers behind their synchronized strength are shared macro pricing factors—Fed policy path, interest-rate expectations, and risk appetite. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has recently risen to high levels, indicating that, at the current stage, crypto assets are more inclined to trade as high-volatility risk assets rather than as independent safe-haven assets.

Q3: What is the most important macro event this week?

On Wednesday (July 8), the Fed will release its June meeting minutes, the first set since Warsh took office. The market will focus on whether there is more hawkish rate-hike wording than expected. In addition, events such as SpaceX’s inclusion in Nasdaq 100, the tariff hearings, and SK Hynix’s ADR listing are also worth paying attention to.

Q4: What does the rebound in US stock index futures mean for crypto investors?

The rebound in US stock index futures typically serves as a leading signal of improving risk appetite, which is a short-term positive for crypto assets. But crypto investors should also pay attention to both the earnings quality in the US Q2 reports and the wording in the Fed meeting minutes—any shortfall relative to expectations could trigger cascading pullbacks.

Q5: How will the linkage between crypto and US stocks evolve in the future?

In the short term, macro factors will continue to dominate the synchronized moves of both. In the medium term, their driving logic is diverging—US stocks are driven more by earnings, while crypto is driven more by on-chain narratives—potentially leading to a scenario of “US stocks oscillating while crypto trades independently.” Investors should make comprehensive judgments by combining macro indicators with on-chain data, avoiding over-reliance on a single historical linkage relationship.