What are the chances of a sustained #ICP recovery?

Looking at the monthly $ICP chart, several things stand out:
The launch was extremely abnormal.
ICP debuted around $700+
That initial price was driven by very low circulating supply, exchange mechanics, and intense speculation.
In my view, that price should not be considered a fair measure of intrinsic value.
The market has spent years repricing ICP.
The long decline from over $700 to around $2 represents one of the largest drawdowns in #crypto.
Much of the forced selling has likely come from token unlocks, early investors exiting, and a collapse in speculative demand.
The recent price action is relatively stable.
Rather than continuing to fall vertically, the chart has spent a long time moving sideways.
Long bases can eventually produce significant rallies, but they don't guarantee them.
Could ICP ever reach $700 again?
Unlikely IMO
Not because the technology is poor as it remains one of the more ambitious blockchain projects but because:
the circulating supply today is vastly larger than at launch,
Many other Layer-1 networks now compete for the same capital.
I think to get a more balanced perspective, we should ask
Are developers choosing ICP over alternatives?
Is total value locked growing?
Are applications generating meaningful fees?
Is network activity increasing year after year?
If the answers become consistently positive, then the price can eventually reflect that.
Looking only at the chart
Technically, this resembles a market that has already suffered its "capitulation" phase.
It doesn't look like a healthy long-term uptrend yet, but neither does it look like the relentless collapse seen from 2021–2023.
The chart appears to be in a prolonged accumulation or base-building phase. Whether that base eventually resolves higher depends much more on fundamentals than on technical analysis.