#非农爆冷打压加息预期 Nonfarm Payrolls Fizzle, Rate Hike Expectations Reverse

The U.S. added only 57k nonfarm jobs in June, far below expectations, with the three-month average plunging to 111k; the reasons the market saw for rate hikes have disappeared—falling oil prices, cooling wages, and a potential 20-30 basis point downward revision to core PCE, as multiple inflationary pressures subside simultaneously.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Cool
The U.S. Department of Labor released June nonfarm payroll data, showing the seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k, well below market expectations; the June unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, below market expectations; hourly wages rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with market expectations. After three consecutive months of beating expectations, June's nonfarm payrolls significantly missed market forecasts, with notable downward revisions to prior months; the breadth and quality of job gains declined, and the World Cup's temporary boost to the leisure and hospitality sector faded this month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell more than expected, driven by a concurrent decline in the labor force participation rate, meaning the drop in unemployment stemmed more from a withdrawal of labor supply than from a rebound in labor demand. The current U.S. job market is not deteriorating like a "layoff wave" but is in a state of weak absorption with "low hiring and low layoffs." On the wage front, no new inflationary constraints have emerged; average hours worked remain low and volatile, hourly wage growth is moderating gently, and the wage-price spiral has not strengthened. Before the specific research results from the five working groups appointed by Wash are released, it may be difficult for the Fed to push forward with further monetary policy actions. At the June FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Wash announced the formation of five working groups, each responsible for topics such as Fed communications, and requested that related research be completed by the end of 2026. Of course, in terms of market expectations, the outlook for rate hikes depends on economic data. The average monthly nonfarm payroll gain in June was 111k, a relatively high level, with trends aligning with forward indicators (NFIB hiring intentions). Looking ahead, it is expected to hover near an equilibrium level of 0-50k over the coming months. Additionally, given the recent sharp decline in oil prices, inflation may have peaked for the year in May. The pressure on the Fed to raise rates in the near term (July-September) could ease significantly, and the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of the year is relatively high.
PMI Returns to Expansion Territory
The manufacturing PMI for June 2026 came in at 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, above the Bloomberg consensus median of 50.1%, returning to expansion territory; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, above the Bloomberg consensus median of 49.9%. The manufacturing PMI's above-seasonal rebound confirms "policy efforts offset weak seasonality," with measures such as accelerated special-purpose bond issuance offsetting seasonal pressures, suggesting the economic cycle bottom may have been solidified. The June manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.3%, signaling an emerging economic recovery. In June, special-purpose bond issuance exceeded 570 billion yuan, a significant acceleration from the less than 200 billion yuan per month in April and May, speeding up the conversion of fiscal funds into real physical workloads. Combined with the early allocation of trade-in program funds, the policy mix effectively countered the downward economic pressure during the off-season. A substantial improvement in demand supported the manufacturing PMI's return to expansion territory. The June production index came in at 51.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index came in at 51.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, with demand improvement far exceeding production, mainly driven by the June 18 e-commerce promotion and a new round of consumer trade-in programs; the new export orders index rose to 50.1%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to improved external demand amid easing geopolitical tensions and rapid growth in AI export demand; the purchasing volume index rose to 51.4%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enterprises are more willing to replenish inventories. High-tech manufacturing and emerging industries continue to lead, while the consumer goods sector stabilizes at the bottom. The high-tech manufacturing PMI came in at 53.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the threshold for 16 consecutive months; the equipment manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the consumer goods sector PMI came in at 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion. The EPMI for emerging industries fell seasonally by 2.5 percentage points to 50.4%, but still remained in expansion territory, with E-services in healthcare, E-services in business consulting, and next-generation information technology performing best. Price indices fell from highs, narrowing the spread between upstream and downstream, but profit margins in the midstream and downstream remain under pressure; the surge in medium-sized enterprise sentiment stands out as a bright spot, while small enterprises continue to weaken. The PMI input price index fell from 60.5% last month to 54.2% this month, and the PMI output price index dropped from 51.9% to 48.2%, falling below the boom-bust line, narrowing the upstream-downstream spread. Prices show structural divergence: upstream oil, chemicals, and nonferrous metals have been declining continuously; non-metals are volatile; ferrous metal prices rose to 88.7% (a 59-month high); downstream consumer prices generally rose. At the enterprise level, the PMI for large enterprises came in at 50.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises jumped 1.9 percentage points to 50.5%, returning to expansion; the PMI for small enterprises continued to fall to 48.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. It is expected that the upward trend in the economic cycle will not change in the third quarter, and the pace of the recovery will depend on the strength of pro-growth policies.
Key points to watch in the second half of the year:
First, whether accelerated special-purpose bond issuance and urban renewal investment can form a continuous stream of real workloads;
Second, the sustainability of improved export orders and tariff disruptions;
Third, whether the 3-percentage-point rebound in non-manufacturing new orders can translate into actual business improvements;
Fourth, whether the sentiment of small enterprises can stabilize.
Commodity Market Lacks Fundamental Drivers
Although Fed rate hike expectations have cooled, this may only benefit a few sectors previously suppressed by liquidity, such as precious metals. The macro fundamentals facing most commodities remain relatively weak, characterized by a range-bound trend.