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#现货黄金站上4200 Affected by the weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data, market expectations for a Fed rate hike have cooled, and gold has rebounded accordingly. It rose for two consecutive days last Thursday and Friday, breaking above the 20-day moving average at 4150.
Looking at the daily chart structure, gold's rebound last week was not only influenced by the non-farm data but also driven by the need for a technical oversold bounce after its sustained decline. After all, the market had previously expected a battle around 4000, and the price found some support there last week.
However, judging by the action and momentum of gold's rebound last week, although the bulls showed some upward movement, the actual rebound momentum was not very strong. Therefore, last week's rebound should still be viewed as a technical oversold bounce, and there should not be high expectations for the continuation of the rebound in terms of space and time.
Gold is expected to see a continued rebound this week, but the upside space will not be large. If the market's expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to cool later, it is possible for gold to move toward the previous high around 4370/80, though this possibility is relatively low. After gold's short-term rebound, the moving average band has not yet fully crossed, so there is a possibility of an initial pullback to test support early this week. The focus below is on the battle around the moving average band of 4150-4070. If the price falls back below 4000 this week, it would signal the end of the rebound trend.
Combining the hourly chart trend, gold rose and rebounded continuously in the latter part of last week, forming an upward channel on the hourly chart. However, the price has now reached the upper resistance level of the channel, and Friday's performance made it difficult to support further gains. Even though there was a rebound after the market opened today, it did not continue, and repeated back-and-forth movements confirm that there is still resistance above on the short-term chart. Therefore, caution should be taken against a potential technical pullback in gold at the start of this week.
At the beginning of this week, gold temporarily retains a slightly bullish expectation, but a technical pullback and adjustment should be allowed. The upper resistance remains around 4200-20, while the lower support could see a pullback to 4150-40 or even 4115-00.
① In terms of trading, aggressive traders can operate within the above range with short-term long and short positions, while conservative traders may choose to wait and see.
② For those who are aggressive and want to participate early this week, they can first go short lightly at 4200-10, with a stop loss at 4220 temporarily. The target is to reduce positions at 4160-50 and move the stop loss to breakeven, with the remaining positions aiming for the 4120-00 area to reduce further. ③ If the market directly rises further early this week, even if it breaks 4220, do not chase highs. Instead, wait for a test of the 4240-50 area to see if a short position can be taken for a pullback.
④ If the price pulls back to 4150/40 or 4115-00 early this week, consider whether to go long based on actual market conditions.$XAUUSD
From the daily chart perspective, last week's rebound in gold was not only influenced by the nonfarm payrolls but also by the need for a technical oversold bounce after its continuous decline. After all, there had been expectations of a battle around the 4000 level, and last week's price found some support there.
However, judging by the action and momentum of last week's rebound, although the bulls made a move, the actual rebound momentum was not very strong. Therefore, last week's rebound should be viewed more as a technical oversold bounce, and one should not have high expectations for the continuation of the rebound in terms of space and time in the short term.
This week, gold is expected to see a continued rebound, but the upside room will not be large. If market expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to cool later on, it is possible for gold to reach the previous high around 4370/80, but the likelihood is relatively low. After the short-term rebound, the moving average bands have not fully crossed, so at the beginning of the week, a retracement to test support cannot be ruled out. Focus on the battle and retest around the moving average band of 4150-4070 below. If it falls back below 4000 this week, the rebound trend will be declared dead.
Looking at the hourly chart, gold rebounded continuously in the latter half of last week, forming an upward channel on the hourly level. However, the current price has also run to the upper boundary resistance of the channel, and Friday's performance made it difficult to support further upside. Even if there was a bounce after today's opening, it did not continue. The repeated back-and-forth also confirms that there is resistance above in the short term. Therefore, one should be cautious about a potential technical correction at the beginning of this week.
At the beginning of the week, gold retains a slightly bullish expectation for now, but a technical correction is allowed. Focus on the resistance area around 4200-20 above, and on the retracement possibility around 4150-40 or even 4115-00 below.
① For operations, aggressive traders can take short-term long and short positions around the above range, while conservative traders should wait and see.
② For those aggressive traders who want to participate at the beginning of the week, they can first short lightly at 4200-10 with a stop loss at 4220 for now, target 4160-50 to reduce positions and move stop to breakeven, and then look at the 4120-00 area for further reduction.
③ If the market moves directly higher at the beginning of the week, do not chase even if it breaks above 4220. Wait to test the resistance near 4240-50 to see if a short-term short position can be taken.
④ If the market retraces to the 4150/40 or 4115-00 area at the beginning of the week, consider whether to take a short-term long position based on actual intraday conditions.
$XAUUSD