7.6 Market Analysis - Brief Update

Trend Direction: Imminent Trend Change

Technical Analysis:

In yesterday’s analysis, it was mentioned that the market might be approaching a trend change. But in the early morning, BTC surged to new highs and entered the resistance zone of 63657-64774. ETH also formed a double top. In both cases, the weekly charts closed with a large bullish engulfing candle that is close to a “bald yang” reversal. Such a weekly chart structure will definitely continue the upward momentum this week, but it remains unclear whether it will first pull back and then rebound to new highs, or whether it will directly continue making new highs before pulling back.

BTC

Returning to the daily timeframe, we can clearly see that the price-volume divergence is still ongoing. After breaking above the MA30 and the trend resistance line, there has not been a large “positive deviation departure.” After MA30 extended downward for 1 month, it has begun to show early signs of turning. This kind of turning phase often brings a larger rally with a further “departure move,” followed by a more substantial correction, and then a move upward again.

The moving averages on the 12H timeframe are relatively messy. The positive deviation departure of MA30 is large, so there is definitely pullback pressure. This creates a contradiction with the bullish outlook on the weekly and daily timeframes.

On the 4H timeframe, price has basically already stabilized above MA180. Above it, MA250 disperses downward and exerts suppression, and it also resonates with the upper edge of the resistance zone at 64774. Therefore, on both the 4H and 12H timeframes, the outlook is consistent: a pullback is expected.

I won’t analyze smaller timeframes. For now, the BTC chart has entered a “can go up or can go down” situation. Even though I still personally lean toward a pullback due to trading bias, we must respect the information the chart is presenting. If you are going to place trades, it’s recommended to watch whether the 62390 area is effectively broken to the downside. As long as it is not broken, for now it remains bullish.

ETH

The early-morning spike to new highs formed an embryonic M-top pattern. So compared with BTC, ETH’s focus is simpler: the M-top neckline, specifically whether 1748-1754 is broken downward. If it can be effectively broken downward and accompanied by a certain amount of volume, then after the breakdown, you can short on a rebound back into this zone. Otherwise, continue to maintain a bullish stance.

Comprehensive Analysis:

With the market reaching this point, from a technical perspective it is difficult to judge direction. You can only make a directional call after key levels show the right price behavior. If we consider the Nasdaq’s positive correlation impact, I still maintain a bearish view: whether U.S. stocks in the night session open higher or open lower, from a technical standpoint the expectation is still for a bearish close. If that produces a positive correlation pull toward the crypto market, then theoretically in the short term BTC and ETH should see a pullback—an “initial crouch then jump” kind of setup. As for how far the crouch goes, the levels were already given yesterday, so I won’t go over them again.

BTC’s HVN and ETH’s HVN are at 62556 and 1760, respectively. If the price breaks down through the 62390 area and 1748-1754 mentioned earlier, it will also inevitably break through those HVNs, increasing the certainty of a downward pullback. In any case, today is likely to see a choice of direction, and these two price levels are the best indicators for us to judge that direction.

For trade placement: for a more conservative approach, it’s suggested to wait on the left side for BTC to challenge the 64774 area before going short. On the right side, wait for the price to break down through the 62390 area, then short after it rebounds back to that level.