Vitalik drew a 3-4 year roadmap, but the reality is: ETH is only $1,760 left

Vitalik is at it again.

On July 4, he published a “streamlined Ethereum” roadmap.

Recursive STARK verification, quantum-resistant signatures, privacy protection elevated to a top-tier goal, and a more than 10x reduction in fees—V God says this is Ethereum’s third major iteration since the 2022 “Merge.”

Sounds explosive, right? But don’t get too excited yet.

ETH is quoted at around $1,780 today. It has already fallen 41% this year.

Even more painful is this: Ethereum is experiencing its first-ever streak of three consecutive quarters of decline.

Q4 2025 fell 28%, Q1 2026 fell 29%, and the drop in Q2—just closed—was 25%.

Across three quarters, it fell a full 70%.

Tell me—can a 3-4 year roadmap save ETH right now?

I’ll say three things:

First, 3-4 years = far water can’t quench immediate thirst.

Vitalik says this upgrade is “comparable to the Merge.” But how long did the Merge take from announcement to implementation? A full two years. This time, it involves native recursive STARK verification, a comprehensive replacement of quantum-resistant cryptography, rewriting the state model, and possibly even introducing a RISC-V virtual machine—essentially replacing almost all core components.

Ethereum researcher Dankrad Feist went straight for the critique: “3-4 years is too slow—I think it can be done in 1 year.”

Even insiders think it’s too slow.

And will Solana, Sui wait for you? With 3-4 years, others will have gone through three rounds of iteration.

Second, ETH isn’t deflationary now—it’s inflationary.

Remember the “ultrasound money” narrative? The “deflationary” story after ETH moved to PoS once made countless people go all in. What about now?

Over the past 30 days, Ethereum’s net supply increased by 83,550 ETH. Total supply reached 121,838,278 ETH, with an annualized growth rate of 0.835%.

This is the highest inflation level since August 2024.

On one side, supply is rising; on the other, prices are falling.

Third, the Foundation itself can barely keep itself afloat.

Last month, the Ethereum Foundation laid off 20% of its staff and cut its budget by 40%. Core developers Tim Beiko and Barnabé Monnot both left in succession.

The ones who sell you the dream are still there, but the ones who actually make the cake have gone.

So when will you actually be able to eat this cake?

I know what you want to say—but the technology really is advancing.

Yes. Recursive STARK is indeed strong, quantum resistance is indeed important, and a 10x reduction in Gas fees is definitely a good thing.

But the problem is: is the market pricing expectations, or reality?

Yahoo Finance puts it very plainly: “The current market price reflects a market waiting for delivery, not a market waiting for promises.”

Put into plain human language: Don’t try to fool me with PPT slides—bring out the real stuff.

Vitalik is planning Ethereum for 2030, while your ETH is still struggling around $1,800. No matter how big the pie is in the distance, it can’t fill the hole in front of you.#gStocks代币化股票上线 #Vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图 #SK海力士登陆纳斯达克 $BTC $ETH $SOL