📉 Weak NFP Report Shakes Rate Hike Expectations – 3-Day Post Analysis

$BTC ‌
---

Were 57,000 jobs enough to change the game?

Three days ago, on Friday, July 6, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report violently shook the markets. Now, after the markets have fully digested the data, it's time to read what has actually changed.

---

🚨 The Numbers That Shook Everything

Indicator Actual Expected
Jobs Added 57,000 only 113,000 expected
April-May Revisions -74,000 additional jobs cumulative contraction
Unemployment Rate 4.2% (decreased!) due to 832,000 jobs lost from the labor force
Participation Rate sharp contraction clear bearish signal

Three bearish signals in one report – rare occurrence!

---

💥 Immediate Impact on Markets

📉 July rate hike probability: from 43% to below 20% in one day
📅 Timing of any future increase: postponed from October to December
💵 Dollar Index: down 40 points
🥇 Gold: up more than 2%
₿ Bitcoin: from $57,950 to $62,053

---

🔍 Where Are Markets Now? (After 3 Days)

· Bitcoin: trading at $62,191 – momentum holds and extends
· Gold: broke above $4,200 today, reinforcing Friday's momentum
· ETH: at $1,737
· XRP: jumped 13% in the first 3 days of July
· Solana: up 18.6% over the past week

The total relief trade is not temporary – it's continuing strongly into the new week!

---

🧠 Why Is This Report Different?

It wasn't just a surprising NFP number; it coincided with three separate bearish indicators in one week:

1️⃣ Fed Chair Waller's statements

"Inflation risks have decreased significantly"
– Just two days before the report, at the ECB conference in Sintra.

2️⃣ Collapse in oil prices

· Oil below $70 per barrel
· Down 40% from its peak during the Iranian conflict
· Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased inflationary pressures

3️⃣ Weak labor market data

· Only 57,000 jobs
· Negative revisions of 74,000 jobs

This coincidence is not a coincidence – it's an indicator of a systemic shift in the macroeconomy.

---
$ETH ‌
📊 What Does the FedWatch Tool Say Now?

July rate hike probability: dropped to 17.6% (lower than Friday's initial assessment)

Instead of fading the dovish shift over the weekend, traders deepened it – confirming the market does not view the report as a one-off anomaly.

---

🔮 What Awaits Us Until the FOMC Meeting (July 29-30)?

Factors supporting the dovish shift:

· Oil below $70 – eases energy inflation
· Weak labor market – eases wage pressures
· Waller's statements – indicate a dovish stance on inflation
· CLARITY Act returns to the Senate on July 13 (48% according to Polymarket, 50-50 according to Galaxy Research)

Counter factors:

· The upcoming July jobs report could surprise to the upside and revive rate hike fears
· PCE inflation at 4.1% – still elevated

⚠️ Honest disclaimer: One weak NFP report does not mean a definitive trend reversal. If the July report comes in strong, rate hike fears will inevitably return.

---

📅 The Next Six Weeks – The Decisive Period

Will be crucial in determining whether Friday's report was:

· ❌ A false alarm – just a temporary hiccup
· ✅ A harbinger of change – the beginning of new labor market dynamics

---

💭 The Real Question Now

Three days after the shock of 57,000 jobs, with Bitcoin stable above $62,000, gold above $4,200, and rate hike expectations continuing to fall...

Do you think the FOMC meeting on July 29-30 will see a real policy shift, pushing cryptocurrencies toward $70,000?

Or will another strong data point before the meeting revive rate hike fears and cap gains?

---

🗣️ Share your opinion!

---

🔹 #GateSquare #BITCOIN" "#NFP #WeakNFPShakesRateHikeOdds