Pre market thoughts - 6 Jul 26

Since the quarterly end rebalancing, yields have inched higher silently with the 10Y at 4.46 and 30y at 4.97. Overnight we had some lacklustre price action in asia markets. As of this writing, KOSPI is down 0.7% while NKY is down 0.3% - both memory markets having retraced some of their huge bounces last friday (~7% on KOSPI, ~5% on NKY).
Over night, it was also leaked that Anthropic was looking to lease up to 1.4GW of compute in australia. First of all, this will have to be done via multiple participants, because there is no singular massive cluster in Australia available for lease right now, with Anthropic targeting at least 1GW by end of 2027. Iren which has been listed as a possible participant is building up a 800MW site, however it will only begin receiving power in 2028. $SHAZ which plans to deploy 40,000 GB300s is well poised to get a deal IF their GPUs have not been leased out yet. The price range for a GB300 is wide - SPCX-GOOG was done at 11.6 for GB200s, and at the bottom of the range we have ~$6. This works out to be about ~2.1B - 3.85B of ARR for $SHAZ. $SHAZ market cap is about 2B now.
Semianalysis has also dropped a report claiming that Kyber will be delayed because of the PCB midplane. The knee jerk read for this is that it is negative for CPOs because these were counting on the ramp up in production. However, i would wait for NVDA to come out with an official announcement before making a judgement call.
Flows wise, GS reports that last week, hedge funds net sold US equities for a third straight week, driven by long sales in single stocks. Asia was not spared as well with Japan dominating the sell flows, followed by Korea which has reversed all the YTD buying.
Over the weekend, crypto and precious metals have both held firm. I would expect them to continue to trade well and retest some upper ranges. The NY session should offer more clues towards positioning.
While I am bullish and believe that the momentum selling has stopped, please note that I can be wrong. I am writing this for all my friends on leverage. The journey back up need not necessarily be the smooth ride that we had in April and May. Given that the hyperscaler earnings are only at the end of the month, there is plenty of chop that could happen before the market finally gets over the wall of worry that AI capex is not stopping. The question is, will you be able to handle that path dependency?
Now, this does not mean that I am bearish. Rather, i am just portraying the wide range of possibilities on the path way that the market could take. Thursday's price action should make you feel excited if you are truly bullish, however if you were deeply scarred, then perhaps you might want to check and shed some weight along the way.
Good luck!