Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Trend Analysis on July 6:

News: Internationally, with the recent start of peace negotiations between the US and Iran, the prices of a series of international commodities, including Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil, have experienced significant fluctuations again. Looking back at the price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold over the past week, there has also been a small upward recovery in prices during the session. As a result, many voices in the market claim that a bull market is about to begin. So, is this phenomenon the horn of a market rebound or a bull market illusion deliberately created by the main players? It is worth pondering! The following are my personal views on the overall market expectations, hoping to provide some reference for you!

Technical Analysis: Since February 2026, the US has waged a nearly half-year war against Iran to control the crude oil transport channel in the Strait of Hormuz. With the outbreak of the US-Iran war, as expected by the market, the prices of crude oil and gold have been rising steadily, which has led to a significant reduction in liquidity in the entire cryptocurrency market. The capital flow of the entire ecosystem mostly points to markets with high expectations and high returns, such as US stocks, gold, crude oil, and natural gas. This creates an extreme contrast with the cryptocurrency market. After a long period of market turbulence, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a significant downtrend in May this year, leading the market to widely believe that the bear market is far from over. For the long term, my personal view is that market repair still requires time to settle. The main players, including market capital outflows, are relatively large, and the entire ecosystem is far from reaching an upward expectation. In the coming long period, the expectation of continued consolidation below is definitely much greater than the expectation of a gradual market recovery and rise. Therefore, I believe that going long in the long term is fine, but only under the premise that all bearish factors are exhausted. Only then can the trend have the potential to rise and strengthen. In the short term, the possibility of a washout and consolidation below is relatively high.

In the short term, since last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been continuously consolidating and rebounding upward, near resistance levels of 63,500 points and 1,810 points. The cycle box range is 60,000-64,500 points for Bitcoin and 1,550-1,850 points for Ethereum. In the 4-hour structure of the session, the short-term upward trend has not yet started to weaken gradually. In the short term, I believe the focus is on whether the resistance levels of 63,500 points and 1,810 points can further hold and strengthen. Combining the above trend summary, the expectation of consolidation during the session is greater than the expectation of a trend following the rise. I think the possibility of a short-term decline is relatively high.

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