#Vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图

2026.7.6 Bitcoin

I. Current Price and Short-Term Market Status

The current BTC price is around $63,800. Since the early July low of $57,758, a rebound from oversold conditions has occurred, with a maximum rebound of over 8% in four trading days. After a morning uptick in Asia, upward momentum has clearly weakened, entering a range-bound consolidation at higher levels.

1. Resistance Range: $64,000–$64,700 is a heavy resistance zone, with a large accumulation of previously trapped chips. A clean breakout in the short term is unlikely.
2. Core Support: $63,000 is the short-term bullish/bearish demarcation line. Holding this level maintains range-bound repair; a clear breakdown would likely end the current rebound, leading to a retest of the $61,000–$62,000 range.
3. Market Characteristics: The rebound is a corrective move after a decline, not a trend reversal. Profit-taking at highs is ongoing, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears. High probability of repeated washouts in the short term; chasing highs is not advisable.

II. Three Core Drivers of the Current Rebound

1. Cooling Fed Rate Hike Expectations (Most Important Catalyst)
June non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, coupled with dovish remarks from the Fed Chair, leading the market to sharply reduce bets on another rate hike this year. U.S. bond yields and the dollar weakened simultaneously, providing room for recovery in high-volatility risk assets, benefiting Bitcoin.
2. ETF Inflow Inflection Point Appears
The previous streak of over ten consecutive days of net ETF redemptions was broken. July 2 saw the largest single-day net inflow in nearly two months. Institutional bottom-fishing and short covering temporarily relieved sustained selling pressure. However, June still saw the largest monthly outflow on record, and capital has not formed a sustained reflow trend.
3. Oversold Market Repair
After two consecutive quarters of decline, the price briefly fell below the 200-week moving average. RSI remained in oversold territory for an extended period, exhausting selling momentum. Combined with concentrated short squeezes, this triggered a technical rebound.

III. Current Mid-to-Long-Term Bearish Pressures in the Market (Ceiling on Rebound Height)

1. Damaged Institutional Holding Sentiment
Strategy, the world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, broke its five-year "never sell" pledge by introducing a financing framework that allows using Bitcoin reserves. The market fears a chain reaction of passive selling by Bitcoin-holding companies, suppressing mid-to-long-term capital inflow willingness.
2. Macro Environment Not Fully Recovered
The Fed has not clarified a rate cut timeline, only temporarily easing short-term rate hike expectations. If subsequent inflation or employment data rebounds, hawkish expectations could quickly return. Bitcoin is highly correlated with U.S. dollar liquidity and is vulnerable to renewed pressure.
3. Weak Market Sentiment
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "extreme fear" zone. Retail follow-up buying is insufficient. The current rally is primarily driven by institutional short covering, lacking retail incremental capital to sustain momentum. The rebound's sustainability is limited.

IV. Today's Per-Cycle Trading Strategy (Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile)

Short-Term Intraday (Today)

- Range-bound approach: Do not chase longs above $64,000; upon encountering resistance, consider light short positions for a pullback.
- If $63,000 holds, take small long positions for a second leg up, with a strict stop loss below $62,800.
- If $63,000 support is directly broken, abandon long-side thinking and wait for a deeper retracement before reassessing.

Medium-Term (Remaining July)

1. Conditions for Trend Reversal Confirmation (All Required):
① BTC consistently holds above $65,000;
② Spot ETF sees consecutive days of stable net inflows;
③ Fed releases clear easing signals;
2. Until met, classify as bear market rally. After the rally runs its course, there is still risk of a second bottom test. The key mid-term support is the previous low of $57,000–$58,000.

Long-Term Logic

The underlying scarcity logic of Bitcoin halving remains unchanged, but the market is in a deep adjustment phase of a liquidity tightening cycle. Institutions are generally divided; Standard Chartered maintains a year-end target of $100k, while most institutions hold conservative views. Long-term positioning requires phased, regular investments (DCA) to avoid heavy lump-sum exposures.