57,000 nonfarm payrolls make Wall Street shut up collectively — is a rate cut really coming?

57,000.

That's not the GDP of some small country. It's the number of new nonfarm payrolls added in the U.S. in June.

What was the market expecting? 113,000. It didn't even hit half.

Wall Street had been **aggressively** betting on rate hikes, with Bank of America calling for 25 basis point hikes in September, October, and December, and Deutsche Bank echoing — and now?

All shut up.

Citigroup is the only one still talking.

Data doesn't lie, but data can lie.

The June unemployment rate fell from 4.296% to 4.189%. Looks pretty good, right?

Citigroup ripped off that fig leaf directly: the unemployment rate drop was entirely because the labor force participation rate plummeted from 61.8% to 61.5%. 832,000 people left the labor force.

If the participation rate had stayed unchanged, the real unemployment rate would be above 4.5%.

This isn't an improving job market. It's people simply stopping looking.

Absurd.

The three pillars supporting rate hikes — rising oil prices, accelerating wages, and core PCE above target — have all collapsed. Oil has fallen to pre-conflict levels, and the core PCE methodology revision will further downgrade it by 20 to 30 basis points.

Citigroup's own words: "The reasons for raising rates have disappeared."

Stay put in July and September, first 25 bps cut on October 28, another 25 bps cut in December, year-end rate down to 3.0% to 3.25%.

Three words: Water is coming.

But does the market really believe it?

CME data shows a 77% probability of rates staying unchanged in July, with only a 23% chance of a hike. On Polymarket, bets place an 89.5% probability of holding steady.

Gold? On the morning of July 6, it broke above $4,200, hitting a two-week high.

Bitcoin? From breaking below $60,000 at the end of June, it bounced back to nearly $64,000 by July 6. Shorts saw hundreds of millions in liquidations.

Looks like everything is perfect — "Nonfarm payrolls miss → rate hike expectations collapse → rate cut expectations heat up → risk assets surge."

But I'm telling you: this logic chain is on the verge of breaking.

Why? Because BTC has already dropped 54%.

Bitcoin fell from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025 to below $60,000 by the end of June. Halved.

In June, spot ETF net outflows hit $4.3 billion, a record high.

Citigroup itself cut BTC's 12-month price target from $112,000 to $82,000.

Rate cut expectations are positive, yes. But for an asset that dropped from $120,000 to $60,000, can a "possible rate cut in October" turn things around?

Naive.

The market's biggest problem now: everyone knows rate cuts are positive, but no one knows if the Fed will actually cut.

Fed Chair Warsh: in the June dot plot, 9 out of 19 policymakers thought at least one hike this year. He himself said in Sintra that inflation risks are declining but wouldn't give forward guidance.

Translation: "I promise nothing."

The June FOMC minutes, to be released on July 9, are the real verification point. If the minutes show hawkish voices outweighing dovish ones, then all current rebounds based on "rate cut expectations" are castles in the air.

"The market is not trading rate cuts — it's trading 'Will the Fed deceive me?'"

Nonfarm payroll data can be faked (the downward revision of the previous month by 74,000 is the best example), but once the market's trust in the Fed collapses, a 100 bps cut won't help.

Bitcoin fell from $120,000 to $60,000 not because of insufficient liquidity — but because confidence is gone.

Rate cuts can solve liquidity, but they can't solve trust.

Citigroup says a rate cut in October. Do you believe it?

More importantly — even if it does happen, can BTC get back to $100,000? #gStocks代币化股票上线 #Vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图 #加密市场回升 $BTC $ETH $SOL