Refined oil prices or the biggest drop so far this year—fill up a tank and save 33.5 yuan.

China New Economy, July 3 (Wan Keyi) The new round of adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open at 24:00 on July 3. Based on comprehensive institutional views, oil product prices may see a third consecutive decline, which would also be the fourth reduction of the year.

Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told China New Economy that during this pricing cycle, influenced by factors such as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices have generally weakened, with averages significantly lower than the previous cycle. The crude oil change rate for this cycle started negative and has deepened continuously, making the expectation for a reduction in refined oil retail prices quite strong.

According to the data monitoring model of Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of overseas markets on July 1, the reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day in China is -19.31%, with an expected reduction of 855 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel. Converted to liters, this means drivers will spend 33.5 yuan less on 92#汽油、95# gasoline and 0#柴油分别下调0.67元、0.71元、0.73元。孟鹏表示，若本轮成品油零售限价确认下调，这将是今年以来的首次“三连降”，私家车单次加满一箱50升的92# diesel.

Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, analyzed that during this adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have continued to decline, and domestic refined oil products are expected to see the largest single adjustment drop of the year. However, the final adjustment magnitude still needs to be confirmed by official announcements.

China New Economy noted that since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have undergone 12 rounds of adjustments, with an overall pattern of "eight increases, three decreases, and one suspension." Among them, in order to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the state has implemented regulatory measures on refined oil prices for two consecutive rounds. If this round of adjustment is implemented as expected, the adjustment pattern for 2026 will become "eight increases, four decreases, and one suspension."

According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of refined oil retail adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 17, 2026.

Looking ahead, Liu Bingjuan stated that from the supply side, the US-Iran situation has significantly eased, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal, currently at about 60% of pre-conflict levels. Oil-producing countries such as Iraq also plan to accelerate the resumption of crude oil production, significantly reducing supply risks. On the demand side, major institutions' forecasts for the global economy and demand remain relatively pessimistic. The recovery of refinery operating rates in many Asian countries still needs time, but it is the traditional peak fuel season in the United States, and seasonal positive factors are being released, with demand expected to gradually improve in the future.

A research report from Tonghui Futures expects that international oil prices will maintain a pattern of weak range-bound fluctuations in the short term. The report mentioned that significant upward movement is constrained by potential supply increases and macroeconomic pressures, while deep declines are supported by commercial inventory drawdowns and geopolitical uncertainties. The future requires close attention to the progress of US-Iran negotiations, OPEC+ production policies, and actual demand performance in the Northern Hemisphere summer. (China New Economy APP)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

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                                                            Oil prices