BTC/ETH Early Morning Outlook｜2026.07.06 07:50

Yesterday’s Review: Yesterday, the key watershed for BTC was 62350~62550. Over the past 24 hours, the low was approximately 62384 and the high was approximately 63941. The watershed was not effectively broken, and it even broke through the 63450~63700 resistance zone for a time, so part of the judgment was fulfilled. However, it is still consolidating below 64000, so it is not a good place to chase a rally. For ETH, yesterday’s key watershed was 1745~1755. The low was about 1748 and the high was about 1807. Support was basically held and it tested above 1800, and the conclusion was partially fulfilled. But the 1805~1830 resistance did not open up stably, so altcoin upside flexibility remains to be observed.

Today’s Overall Judgment: The combined state given by BTC and ETH is range-bound consolidation repair in the resistance zone, not a one-sided strong reversal. BTC’s current price is about 63520, with a 24-hour gain of about 0.69%, in a range of 62384~63941. ETH’s current price is about 1782, with a 24-hour gain of about 0.13%, in a range of 1748~1807. BTC has stronger short-term momentum, but it has already approached the 4-hour Bollinger upper band. ETH is still stuck near the daily MA50 and prior high resistance. Today, altcoins overall are less active; weak coins should be prioritized for defense.

BTC: The 1-hour price is around 63520, above the MA20 (about 62813) and MA50 (about 62762). The Bollinger range is about 62238~63388. The MACD red bars are expanding; short-term it is still repairing, but it has already moved to the outside of the upper band. The 4-hour price is above the MA20 (about 62416) and MA50 (about 60823). The 4-hour Bollinger upper band is about 63624. The MACD green bars are narrowing. The structure has not broken; above 64000 still needs volume confirmation. On the daily timeframe, it is standing above the MA20 (about 61991), but it is still below the MA50 (about 66747). On the weekly timeframe, it is below the MA20 (about 70749). The monthly chart is still low-level repair after a big drop. Short-term support is 63100~63300, and strong support is 62350~62550. Short-term resistance is 63850~64000, and strong resistance is 64600~65000. Today’s key watershed is 63100~63300. If it holds, expect mostly range-bound consolidation repair; if it falls back below 63100, first look for a pullback.

ETH: The 1-hour price is about 1782, above the MA20 (about 1771) and MA50 (about 1769). The Bollinger range is about 1753~1788. The MACD red bars are slightly shrinking; the rebound is still ongoing, but momentum is weaker than BTC. The 4-hour price is above the MA20 (about 1752) and MA50 (about 1656). The 4-hour Bollinger upper band is about 1809. The MACD green bars are slightly expanding. Above 1800 is still the key test area. On the daily timeframe, it stands above the MA20 (about 1675), but it is still below the MA50 (about 1808). The daily Bollinger upper band (about 1833) also exerts pressure. Short-term support is 1765~1775, and strong support is 1745~1755. Short-term resistance is 1800~1810, and strong resistance is 1830~1850. Today’s key watershed is 1765~1775. If it holds, there is still room for repair; if it breaks, altcoin elasticity will cool down.

Today’s Altcoin Cross-Asset Correlation Judgment: Altcoins are relatively inactive today. The main reason is that BTC is near the 64000 resistance, while ETH is not significantly stronger than BTC. Only if BTC holds 63100~63300, ETH holds 1765~1775, and ETH reclaims above 1810, will altcoins have better repair space. If BTC breaks below 63100, or ETH falls back below 1765, altcoins are likely to shift easily from “catch-up rallies” to “pullbacks.” When ETH is weaker than BTC, altcoin elasticity is usually under pressure; today, do not focus only on single-coin surges.

Public Version Trading Principles: Don’t chase highs today; wait first for confirmation of key support and resistance. As long as BTC has not broken 63100~63300, there is no rush to get bearish, but until it stands firm above 64000 with volume, do not treat it as a strong reversal. For ETH, focus on 1765~1775 and 1810. If the watershed breaks, reduce positions first for defense; if key resistance is reclaimed, then look for continuation of the repair. For the full observation pool levels and single-coin strategies, refer to the subscription newsletter or group documentation.

Risk Warning: The above content is only market scenario analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile—pay attention to position sizing and stop-losses.