Oman and Iran have jointly introduced a toll collection mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz—boldly walk in! July 6 “big cake” and “ether” analysis

Half a month has passed since the US and Iran officially signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding, but negotiations between the two sides have made little progress. Oman and Iran are jointly discussing a new maritime security governance framework, and market reports say the two countries intend to roll out a ship transit fee mechanism. The US government has always taken a hard-line stance against setting up any passage tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. The “wise king” administration had previously issued a tough warning: if Oman helps Iran build a toll system, the US will take aggressive sanctions. This morning, the Israeli Air Force carried out an airstrike on a residential apartment near Taylor Harwa Jordan Hospital in the southwest of Gaza City. The ceasefire agreement can’t restrain Israel at all, and it’s unclear whether someone was behind it? Yesterday I laid out a short-selling plan—tried to manage the bigger picture, set a stop-loss with Polymarket… but I was still swept!

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows five straight bullish sessions. The coin price has risen to near the upper Bollinger Band, but the Bollinger Bands have not opened up significantly. The KDJ three-line golden cross has also clearly slowed down the fast line. The early session close this morning was a doji cross, and the price is likely to pull back. So for today, we’ll first go short near the highs and catch the pullback!!

July 6 short ideas:

For Bitcoin, short one lot at the current price 63500-64000. Defend around 65000. Targets are 62500-62000-61500. If it breaks through, look at 61000-60500-60,000. If it continues to break, keep moving the stop-loss—take profit protection as appropriate!

For Ethereum, short one lot at the current price 1785-1820. Defend above 1850. Targets are around 1700-1670. If it breaks through, look at 1650-1630. If it continues to break, keep moving the stop-loss—take profit protection as appropriate!

July 6 long ideas:

For Bitcoin, buy long when it pulls back to 59500-60,000. For the more conservative traders, enter around 58500-59000. Defend around 58000. Targets are 61000-61500-62000. If it breaks through, look at 62500-63000. If it continues to break, keep moving the stop-loss—take profit protection as appropriate!

For Ethereum, buy long when it pulls back to 1600-1630. For the more conservative traders, enter around 1530-1560. Defend around 1500. Targets are 1650-1700-1720. If it breaks through, look at 1750-1780. If it continues to break, keep moving the stop-loss—take profit protection as appropriate!

The US-Iran negotiations have gone on for half a month, but there has been no real progress. Plus, since Israel is not constrained by the ceasefire agreement, conflicts are likely to escalate again. So everyone, be cautious about chasing the rally!