Memecoin dominance has dropped to 3.7%. ETF margin balance continues to grow.

Headlines

▌Meme Coin Dominance Falls Back to 3.7%, Hitting a New Low Since February 2024

On July 6, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said in a post that the dominance of Meme coins in the altcoin market has dropped to 3.7%, the lowest level since February 2024. This is a sharp decline from the peak of more than 10% in November 2024. Darkfost said Meme coin holders are becoming increasingly scarce—this is the fewest in nearly three years—reflecting that the sector is being significantly overlooked by the market.

▌ETF Margin Balances Keep Rising as Leveraged Funds Are “Both Offensive and Defensive”

On July 6, since June, the activity level in China A-shares’ trading has continued to improve, with financing funds accelerating their move into the market via ETFs. According to Wind data, as of June 30, the ETF margin balances for both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 116.088 billion yuan, up 5.258 billion yuan from the end of May. Among them, theme ETFs such as semiconductors and communications have become key areas for financing funds to add positions. However, gold ETFs still hold the top spot in financing balances, suggesting that while leveraged funds are actively laying out growth opportunities, they still retain a certain amount of hedging positions.

Market

As of the time of publication, according to CoinGecko data:

BTC is $62,681.41, 24-hour change +0.8%；
ETH is $1,772.49, 24-hour change +0.6%；
BNB is $586.25, 24-hour change +2.6%；
SOL is $80.89, 24-hour change +1.1%；
DOGE is $0.07706, 24-hour change +1.2%；
XRP is $1.13, 24-hour change +2.1%；
TRX is $0.3278, 24-hour change +0.5%；

WLFI is $0.058, 24-hour change -1%；

HYPE is $70.87, 24-hour change +1.5%.

Policy

▌U.S. media: Trump pressures FIFA; suspension of the U.S. team’s top scorer for a red card is temporarily not enforced

On July 6, according to The New York Times, three people with knowledge of the matter revealed that U.S. President Trump called FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) President Gianni Infantino on July 1 local time, asking him to re-examine the suspension of the U.S. team’s top scorer Balogun during the U.S.-Canada-Mexico World Cup. Balogun was sent off with a red card in the Round of 32 match on that day, when the U.S. team beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0, after stepping on the opponent’s foot. On July 5, FIFA announced that, due to violations of Articles 14 and 66 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code, FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee issued a one-match ban to Balogun. At the same time, pursuant to Article 27 of the same code, the Disciplinary Committee is authorized to fully or partially defer a disciplinary sanction. The one-year deferment of Balogun’s ban was confirmed, meaning he will be eligible to play in Monday’s match against Belgium. This is the first time since 1962 that FIFA has allowed a player who was originally supposed to be suspended to continue playing. Trump welcomed FIFA’s decision to allow Balogun to play on his social media platform, but he did not mention that he called Infantino and did not credit his own involvement for the decision.

****▌A-share Trading New Rules Take Effect Today; Investors Need to Pay Attention to Three Key Changes

On July 6, after more than two months of market technical and business preparations, the new A-share rules officially took effect from July 6 (Monday). The new rules are intended to optimize the securities trading system, promote stable market operation, and better meet investors’ trading needs. Judging from a series of optimization measures in the new rules, the core items include optimizing the closing trading mechanism for Shanghai-listed funds, expanding the range of securities applicable to post-market fixed-price trading methods, and adjusting the price limit ratio restrictions for risk-warning stocks on the main board (that is, main-board ST stocks and *ST stocks). Investors should promptly monitor rule changes and make advance preparations for trading strategies, risk management, and other related work.

Blockchain Applications

▌Polymarket’s World Cup Champion Prediction Market Trading Volume Breaks $3.9 Billion

On July 6, according to Polymarket data, the cumulative trading volume for the 2026 World Cup champion prediction market has already broken $3.9 billion. Among them, France’s probability of winning rose to 35.1%, corresponding to trading volume of more than $94.5 million; Argentina ranked second with 16.8%, and related trading volume reached $99.99 million; Spain ranked third with 12.3%.

Cryptocurrency

▌If BTC Breaks $65,774, the Cumulative Short Liquidation Intensity on Major CEXs Will Reach $825 Million

On July 6, according to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks $65,774, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $825 million. Conversely, if BTC falls below $59,989, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $750 million.

****▌If ETH Falls Below $1,692, the Cumulative Long Liquidation Intensity on Major CEXs Will Reach $549 Million

On July 6, according to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $1,692, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $549 million. Conversely, if ETH breaks $1,866, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $463 million.

****▌Ethereum’s Net Supply Increased by 83,550 Units Over the Past 30 Days

On July 6, according to Ultrasound data, Ethereum’s net supply increased by 83,550 units over the past 30 days. Ethereum’s total supply is now 121,838,278 ETH, and the current supply growth rate is 0.835% per year.

Major Economic Developments

▌Israel’s military says it has fully taken control of Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon

On July 6, the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Zamir, visited Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon. Zamir said that after capturing Beaufort Ridge, the Israeli military has now fully controlled the surface area and the underground tunnel network of this region. He also said the Israeli military will continue operations to eliminate threats from Lebanon. Beaufort Ridge is a strategic stronghold in southern Lebanon from which large areas of southern Lebanon can be overlooked. On May 31, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli military had captured the Beaufort Ridge outpost. (CCTV News)

****▌Probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 77%

On July 6, according to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 77%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 23%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 41.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 47.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 10.5%.

****▌Israel’s prime minister says he will continue to oppose the Iran nuclear plan

On July 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said on the 5th local time that regardless of whether the United States and Iran reach an agreement, he will continue to oppose Iran’s nuclear plan. He said that in order to safeguard Israel’s fundamental interests, the Israeli government will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. (CCTV)

****▌Reportedly, after meeting Zelensky in Turkey, Trump plans to call Putin

On July 6, Reuters reported, citing a senior U.S. official, that U.S. President Trump plans to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on July 8 during the NATO summit to discuss solutions to resolve the Ukraine conflict, and will then call Russian President Putin after the meeting. The report said, “A senior U.S. official said that Trump will meet Zelensky this Wednesday to discuss ‘how we end this war.’ After the meeting with Zelensky, Trump will likely call Putin. Trump is eager to push for this conflict to end as soon as possible.” Russian presidential aide Ushakov previously said that during a phone call with Trump, Putin stated that Russia is ready to resolve the Ukraine conflict through diplomatic means based on the plan proposed by Russia. He also said the two presidents discussed the progress on resolving the Ukraine issue and taking into account that Trump is about to travel to Turkey to attend the NATO summit.

****▌Spot gold rises above $4,200

On July 6, spot gold rose above $4,200 per ounce in early trading, hitting a two-week high, with a gain of 0.6% during the day. (Jin Shi)

Gold Encyclopedia

▌Can Bitcoin still be called “digital gold” amid geopolitical crises?

Every time a geopolitical crisis occurs, gold prices rise while Bitcoin prices crash. After six tests, the claim that “digital gold” has never been verified by data. Countries stockpile gold, yet exclude Bitcoin from their reserves. For investors, Bitcoin is asymmetric: it falls when stocks fall, but it does not rise when stocks rise. Three structural asymmetries prevent Bitcoin from gaining a safe-haven status: an overabundance of derivatives (market structure), the dominance of leveraged traders (participant composition), and a lack of repeated behavioral track records (behavior accumulation).

Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a “useful asset in a crisis.” In situations such as borders closing and bank failures, it can indeed play a role. If these three asymmetries shrink, Bitcoin may no longer be a replica of gold, but instead become a whole new “next-generation gold.” A generational shift and the widespread application of algorithms are key factors that may accelerate this process.