7.6 Monday BTC Morning Thoughts

The tailwind from easing after non-farm payrolls has faded. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded, putting pressure on Bitcoin’s upside. ETF flows have continued to see outflows. This rebound is only a short-term bounce caused by short-covering and not a trend reversal; weakness in U.S. stocks also reduces overall market risk appetite.
On the chart, resistance at $62,800-$63,500 is thick, with multiple attempts to push higher failing to break through. The $60,000 level is the line between strength and weakness—if it is lost, the rebound move ends. Short-term bullish momentum is waning, indicators are turning downward, and the larger-cycle bearish structure remains unchanged.
Today’s price action is weak consolidation near the highs. The moment price pushes up, profit-takers exit, and the risk of chasing longs at high levels is extremely high. Pay close attention to whether the $60,000 support holds or breaks, and prepare in advance for risk control on any pullback.
Trading idea: short from 632-638, target 620. If it breaks, then look for 610; if it does not break, reverse to long $BTC $ETH $SOL