Ethereum's net increase of 83,550 ETH over the past 30 days, with an annualized supply growth rate of 0.835%. This number is not large, but it means one thing: the deflationary narrative that has lasted nearly two years has officially come to an end.

The ETH burned by EIP-1559 is no longer enough to cover the issuance. The diversion of activity to Layer2 and low Gas fees on the mainnet are the direct causes. More deeply, Ethereum's economic model is regressing from "ultra-sound money" to ordinary assets — the supply is no longer an automatically tightening anchor.
Has the market priced this in? The ETH/BTC exchange rate is still hovering at low levels, with funding rates neutral to weak. Deflation was one of the core logics for institutions to buy ETH, and now this logic needs to be re-evaluated.
The risk is that if supply continues to grow without a corresponding increase in demand, ETH will face structural pressure for a longer period. On the other hand, low Gas also means lower cost of using Layer1, which may attract some activity back.
After the narrative recedes, prices will ultimately return to supply and demand themselves.
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