Every time it bounces up, someone will ask, can we go long now?



Remember one thing: as long as it's not a unilateral downtrend, you can go long at any time. The key is how much you plan to enter, how much volatility you allow, where to set stop loss or do a T trade or where to add positions if it breaks down.

When the market is strong and the pullback is not large, a universal method to avoid both missing out and fearing a drop: initial position at market price + add position when it pulls back to around 0.50 of the day's range (for example, if it rises 2000 points today, add positions at the pullback of 1000 points). There are only two scenarios:

A. When it continues to rebound non-stop, the initial position is in profit and the position size is small, then you should add positions at the second rebound resistance and take profit at the next new high.

B. When it pulls back to the low area of 0.50-0.618, add positions; after merging with the initial position, the average cost is also advantageous. At this point the position is saturated, so there is no need to add positions when breaking through resistance again, to avoid being caught off guard if the pullback occurs before timely profit-taking due to excessive position size.

The defense level for buying on dips is specific, not set arbitrarily. The principle must satisfy two conditions simultaneously: 1. A support level close to your average cost. Because if the defense is too far away, in extreme market conditions, your loss will be too large and not worthwhile. For example, if ETH price reaches around 2236, the defense is 2200, because if it breaks 2200, the next supports are only 2000 and 1880; you cannot set defense at 2000, that is an invalid defense, and you would end up giving away an extra 200 points. 2. Use the "lowest point of the previous day's pullback" as that day's defense, to test the next direction of the main force. If the defense is not broken, the uptrend will continue; if broken, it will enter a consolidation or choose a new direction. Usually this position is also not far from the opening cost, making risk control reasonable.
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