7.5 Market Analysis - Brief Update

Trend Direction: Phase Resistance, or a Pullback

News, Data, and the 'Wild Guess' Script

As mentioned earlier, there are no major data releases next week, but attention should be paid to the US June CPI and PPI on the 14th and 15th of this month (personally I think it will be a big negative). Perhaps this will be the last new low of the third decline of the big trend. Next is the FOMC meeting in the early hours of July 30th. Therefore, the trend may see a near-term pullback, then a possibility of hitting around 1842 and 1892 again, followed by a broad sell-off in all categories of financial assets around the CPI and PPI releases, then a rise approaching the FOMC meeting, and after the meeting a pullback followed by a continued upward move.

The above is all a 'wild guess' script, but it must be said that the possibility of this 'wild guess' exists and can be used for reference. Next, let's move to the chart analysis.

Technical Analysis:

BTC

After a brief suppression, BTC broke through the trend resistance line last night, and is now just one step away from the lower edge of the resistance zone 63657-64774. Today's market is relatively oscillating. After breaking through the trend resistance line, there has been no obvious positive deviation. Although the day session has received support twice at the trend resistance line (now support, shown in red), this breakthrough with a small positive deviation is likely to result in a false breakout. Coupled with the downward 'pullback' effect of moving averages at all levels, I personally judge that the market may enter a short-term pullback. However, after squatting down, there is no doubt that it will continue upward.

ETH

The first target of 1773 has been reached and broken, but yesterday's high of 1808 is still within the key resistance area of 1767-1842. The rally from the bottom has already been 20%. To continue moving up, it may face a short-term pullback.

ETH's trend is obviously stronger than BTC, as can be seen from the exchange rate. The positive deviation from the trend resistance line has reached nearly 9% at the high. Whether it is the moving averages of various levels or the trend resistance line, there is a possibility of a downward 'pullback'. It is currently oscillating narrowly between the 4H MA5 and MA250. If it effectively breaks below the MA250, it may trigger a pullback of no less than 5% from the current price.

Although the trend is still bullish, the rally on decreasing volume has been too rapid, and there has been a clear divergence between price and volume. At this position, it is not ruled out that there will be another sharp upward push to lure longs. But from a trading perspective, the success rate of shorting at this position has begun to exceed that of going long.

After the recent days' rally, the HVN has moved up to 1758, with 1699 below. After a high and a pullback to 1758, followed by further consolidation, a move downward is more likely.

Comprehensive Analysis:

To summarize, under the current trading bias, the target for BTC in this round is still 65623-67735, and for ETH the first target is around 1842, the second target around 1893. But although the targets are here, the process may see a short-term 'squat before jump' pattern, meaning it may face a pullback in the short term.

Yesterday, the trend position opened a 2x short at 1778, and the short-term position added via a limit order at 1786. Obviously, the above are all leaning to the left side. A more conservative left-side trade could consider opening a short position near 1795 or above at the major resistance near 1842. For right-side trading, watch for ETH breaking below the 4H MA250. If it breaks down and creates a large negative deviation, then a bounce back to the 4H MA250 can be sold short on the right side. That is, after dropping to 1720 or below, a bounce to around 1750 can be shorted. The first pullback target is around 1699, the second target around 1655, the third target 1605-1626, and the extreme target 1566-1588.