Bitcoin & Ethereum 7.6-7.12 Long-Term Layout for Next Week - Shiyuan's View

Long-Term Trend Analysis:
Bitcoin and Ethereum show clear resistance at the weekly level, with weak bullish momentum. Each upward move fails to hold key resistance levels, and the rebounds are merely corrective within a downtrend. Next week's bearish trend is unlikely to reverse. The medium-term downtrend channel is fully open, and every rebound is a good opportunity to short at high levels. Do not go against the trend to bottom-fish or speculate on reversals. Maintain a short-only approach throughout the operation. Ethereum's overall trend is weaker than Bitcoin's, with greater downside volatility, making it more cost-effective for long-term shorting.

Bearish News Factors:
1. Federal Reserve officials collectively issued hawkish statements, delaying expectations for rate cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded, and the U.S. dollar index stabilized and strengthened, continuously diverting liquidity from the crypto market.
2. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and spot ETFs continued to see net outflows. Institutions kept reducing positions during rebounds, with major fund outflows evident. No large-scale incremental funds entered to support the market.
3. Safe-haven capital from U.S. tech stocks and gold continued to drain the market. Liquidity in the crypto sector kept shrinking. Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" has temporarily lost funding support.
4. Large Ethereum staking unlocks are concentrated, releasing continuous selling pressure. The Bitcoin-to-Ethereum price ratio continues to hit new lows, and Ethereum's weak trend persists.
5. The non-farm payroll and CPI data for this week are expected to lean hawkish. The market has priced in a high-interest-rate environment in advance. Call option positions are continuously reduced, and a declining market is prone to triggering cascading longs liquidations.
6. Multiple countries have introduced stricter crypto compliance policies, with retail investors remaining cautious on the sidelines. During the market decline, there is a lack of bottom-fishing demand, and rebounds are becoming increasingly weak.
7. Long positions in existing contracts are piling up, with heavy overhead supply. Each rebound triggers selling pressure from trapped holders, further capping upside potential.

Long-Term Operation Suggestions:

Bitcoin
Short in batches range: 64300-65800
Defense watershed: 66200
First long-term target: 62000
Second long-term target: 59500
Ultimate long-term target: 57000

Ethereum
Short in batches range: 1710-1790
Defense watershed: 1810
First long-term target: 1650
Second long-term target: 1610
Ultimate long-term target: 1530$BTC $ETH