🔥First time in this cycle: The amount of $BTC loss position has become the majority

🔴According to Glassnode, 10.83M BTC are in a state of loss compared to 9.22M still in profit. The crossover signal appeared on 4/6 when the price touched $61.3K and so far the gap shows no signs of reversing.
BTC is currently around $61K, 51% lower than the all-time high of $126K October 2025.
🔴Why did this signal come earlier than previous cycles?
In 2022, the amount of loss only exceeded the amount of profit when BTC had fallen ~70% from the peak. This time, only -51% was needed to achieve that state.
The reason comes from the fact that many $BTC were traded in the $90K-$120K range through spot ETFs and DAT.
-> Just a moderate price drop causes millions of BTC to turn into loss at the same time. But the positive point is that most of them are held by ETFs and institutions that have not sold despite being at a loss - which is also the reason why $BTC this season has not dumped as badly as the previous one.
🔴What does history say?
Similar crossovers: 2015 lasted ~1 year, 2019 ~6 months, March 2020 ~1 month, 2022 ~6 months.
These crossovers have a common point: They all ended thanks to the Fed reversing its policy or pumping liquidity. But currently it's the opposite - Warsh maintains a tightening stance, expectations for rate cuts are pushed to 2027, the market is even betting on a rate hike in October.