How far are we from the end of the crypto bear market?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)_

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

According to Coinglass data, from May 19 to today (July 3), the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in "negative" territory for 46 consecutive days, setting a record for the "longest consecutive negative" period. Previously, the index had been in negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, setting the longest consecutive negative record since the indicator's launch, surpassing the approximately 30 consecutive days of negative premium during last year's "10/11 crash".

Considering that BTC and ETH have fallen below key levels such as $58,000 and $1,600, the specific timing for the end of the bear market remains unclear. For many, the wait is particularly agonizing.

Overview of Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

The Biggest Trigger for BTC's Plunge: Strategy Sells Coins to Survive, Loss-Making Groups Expand

At the end of May and beginning of June, Strategy, the largest BTC treasury company and leading cryptocurrency concept stock, sold BTC again after 3 years. This transaction of only 32 BTC quickly triggered panic in the crypto market, like the last straw that broke the camel's back. The prices of mainstream coins such as BTC, ETH, and SOL subsequently plummeted.

Coupled with factors such as persistent net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and continuous bleeding in the crypto market, the shadow of the crypto bear market once again hangs over everyone in the industry.

Bear Market Beginning: In early June, BTC once posted its worst weekly performance since 2022

In the first week of June, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60k, posting its worst weekly performance since the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. In the nearly 7 days through June 7, Bitcoin fell 16%, retreating more than 50% from its 2025 all-time high of over $126k.

In terms of data at that time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows of about $5.5 billion. At the same time, Bitcoin's price fell below the widely-watched key support level of the "200-week moving average," further weakening market confidence.

Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market as a "silent bear market," believing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is an important confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear market phase.

Although BTC subsequently rebounded slightly to around $65,000, multiple market analysts at the time warned that the rebound might be unsustainable, and Bitcoin may not have yet reached the bottom of this cycle. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, said the market still has a considerable distance from the "true bottom."

In the author's opinion, if the market still had expectations for a significant BTC rebound in May, Strategy's action of selling coins to survive directly shattered people's last illusions, symbolically kicking off the "bear market confirmation" curtain.

Bear Market Continues: Many Institutions' Predictions of Bear Market End Proved Wrong

On June 11, crypto research institution CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin might form a bottom around $53,600, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin, i.e., the on-chain average cost basis of all market participants. The report noted that in previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin usually bottoms near or slightly below the realized price.

On June 12, BIT released its latest weekly report titled "Will the FIFA World Cup Be the End of Bitcoin's Bear Market?" It believes that the current bear market trend of Bitcoin is basically consistent with its outlook from early February 2026. The previously predicted A-B-C adjustment structure has entered its final phase: after Wave A fell to the $60k-$69k range, Bitcoin rebounded to the $80k-$90k range, peaked temporarily around $83k, and then the rebound momentum gradually weakened.

BIT pointed out that the current Fear and Greed Index has approached a historically low area with important reference significance, still showing some similarity to the 2022 bear market bottom structure. It maintains its previous view that the summer trading lull during the 2026 World Cup may become the final phase of Bitcoin's current bear market.

On June 17, crypto research firm K33 stated, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders hit an all-time high, indicating that the bear market may be nearing its end. It emphasized that the reactivation of old coins in 2026 was significantly subdued. As of June 6, only 218,421 Bitcoins had been reactivated, showing a substantial reduction in on-chain selling pressure; in contrast, 1.18 million Bitcoins had been reactivated during the same period in 2024. K33 believes that the decline in old coin activity indicates reduced willingness of long-term holders to sell, and patient participants are continuously absorbing supply.

But soon, the further decline of BTC completely shattered the illusions of these views, and the bear market's pace continued.

Bear Market Indicators: STRC Depegs from $100, Losses Expand for BTC and ETH Long-Term Holders

On June 18, after falling below $95 at the beginning of the month, the price of Strategy's preferred stock STRC fell below $90, closing at $89, the lowest daily closing price since its IPO and the lowest dividend-adjusted closing price since November last year.

Subsequently, STRC continued to decline, persistently depegging.

On June 26, STRC's pre-market price briefly fell to $73, hitting an all-time low. Market focus then shifted to two things: first, the ex-dividend date on June 30, where eligible holders will receive a dividend of $0.48 per share on July 15; second, the reset of the monthly dividend rate. At that time, STRC's effective yield was nearly 15%, and investors expected Strategy to raise the dividend rate from 11.50% to at least 12% or 12.50%.

Three days later, on June 29, Strategy officially announced a $1 billion digital credit securities buyback program and launched a board-approved "up to $1.25 billion BTC monetization plan." Its dollar reserves also increased to $2.55 billion with the implementation of various financing plans, enabling it to pay interest on preferred stocks such as STRC. STRC's discount crisis was temporarily resolved, and its price rebounded above $80, currently reported at $87.87.

Source: Strategy Official Website

However, due to the continued decline of BTC and ETH, losses for long-term holders further expanded.

On June 25, Bitcoin briefly fell to about $59,100, with 10.83 million BTC in a loss position, a record high, exceeding the previous bear market bottom peak of about 10.5 million; long-term holders (holding for at least 155 days) held a record 14.8 million BTC (Odaily Planet Daily Note: The total circulating Bitcoin supply is about 20 million), of which 37% were in loss. Latest data shows that the number of BTC held by long-term holders has grown to 16.61 million BTC today, while the average cost basis has dropped to around $49,700.

Data on June 26 showed that ETH whales have fallen into losses, the first time since 2019. Even during the 2022 bear market, the largest whale holding over 100k ETH remained profitable. Currently, the unrealized profit ratios for all three whale groups are negative: -0.26 for the 1,000 to 10k ETH range, -0.21 for the 10,000 to 100k ETH range, and -0.05 for the over 100,000 ETH range. This state has persisted for several weeks.

Bitcoin UTXO data on June 28 showed that the current market's loss-making transaction share/profitable transaction share has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "capitulation" phase. The last similar low occurred in the mid-2023 bear market depth phase, when Bitcoin prices once fell to about $26,000.

Previously, due to the continuous price decline, ETH's market cap briefly fell below $185 billion, surpassed by USDT. As the price rebounded above $1,700, ETH's market cap is now temporarily reported at $207 billion.

In summary, STRC returning to peg at $100, and BTC and ETH long-term holders exiting loss positions will be key indicators for the end of the bear market.

Speculation on Bear Market End Date: August or December?

Regarding the specific timing of the bear market's end, there is currently no mainstream view in the market. Here we only use some industry experts' opinions as reference.

Yi Lihua: July-August May Be a Good Opportunity to Bottom Fish

At the end of June, TrendResearch founder Yi Lihua stated that the current decline is the third wave since the 1011 (date?), and according to wave theory and cycle patterns, this is the last major drop for Bitcoin.

The market is most concerned about Bitcoin's bottom price this time. The main factors are U.S. stocks and MicroStrategy. The Fed's concerns about CPI may trigger changes in expectations of rate cuts or even rate hikes, leading to continued corrections in U.S. stocks. Second, past bear market tails often saw black swan or blow-up events, which have not yet occurred in this cycle and require close observation.

Calculating from Bitcoin's high of $126k, a 60% decline corresponds to $51k, and a 66% decline corresponds to $43k. In any case, July to August should be the final time and the best time to bottom fish, even the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years.

Jiang Zhuoer: BTC Will Bottom at $42k-$44k in October-December

On June 25, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Laibit Mining Pool, predicted that the current BTC bear market will bottom on October 31 this year at $44,016. Combining the rule that mNAV leads the coin price bottom by 6 months, he revised the bottoming time window to October to December 2026, with a bottom price range of $42k to $44k.

He pointed out the logic: the mNAV (ratio of stock price to BTC value per share) of Strategy's common stock MSTR has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 on May 11, 2022, during the previous bull market. Based on recent market sentiment events such as STRC's significant depegging, it is currently predictable that this is the lowest area of mNAV for this cycle. However, when mNAV is at its lowest, BTC price is not at its lowest. In the previous cycle, when mNAV bottomed at 0.7 on May 11, 2022, BTC price was $31,017, while BTC bottomed at $15,476 on November 21, 2022, with mNAV at 1.2, a gap of 6 months.

BTC Price Indicators: 4-Year Average Price, 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

According to Coinglass data, the BTC 4-year average price index showed that from June 25 to June 30, affected by BTC briefly falling below $59,000, the index once dropped to 0.95; currently, as BTC rebounds above $61,000, it has recovered to around 1.

According to the BTC 200-week moving average heatmap, BTC price is currently roughly equal to the 200-week average, and has been consistently below the 200-week average since June 23, which may suggest a price bottom.

In addition, returning to the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index mentioned at the beginning of the article, it is currently still at -0.123%. Based on previous positive ranges, BTC price would need to rebound to around $77,000 for the index to return to positive.

In summary, without strong external positive stimuli, this bear market will last at least another 2-3 months. Late September to early October will be the judgment window for whether BTC can rebound.

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