Bitcoin Sunday Analysis

Bitcoin is trading at roughly 62.5K, and it remains an interesting moment in time, and a time for a disciplined, not emotional approach. Whilst the recent rebound has been promising, my overarching sentiment regarding the broader market is no different.

Over the past months I’ve flagged 54K-60K as a very strong demand region on the chart. Buyers emerged from that region once more, helping Bitcoin bounce towards 63K. That is why I identified it as a good region to be interested in short-term, long positions – not because I believed the major downtrend was over.

With price back, my attention returns to the next major resistance.

My prior short position from 82K remains at its original size. I am not looking to reduce it at this point, and continue to hold out for the time that higher-timeframe structure becomes more conducive to a downside move, over the medium term.

If we continue this relief rally in Bitcoin, 68K-72K is still my preferred region to look for opportunities to enter into additional shorts. A move into this area brings us into potential, new resistance and a level to monitor.

From a global view of the markets, I believe that a true capitulation hasn’t occurred yet. We have seen periods of fear and uncertainty, but we haven’t seen mass forced liquidations at cycle bottoms. Until then, I believe we still hold a more bearish outlook over the global markets.

The same applies to the rest of the altcoin market – if Bitcoin were to continue lower in its trend, many of the altcoins will likely suffer even more in the face of high volatility and tighter correlation in periods of “risk off”.

As a final note, sentiment has become very bullish in the markets, and you’ll likely see calls for this to be the bottom, and so on. Historically, it’s relief rallies that are often the ones where participants believe the worst is over, before a final push lower. History doesn’t always repeat, but history often rhymes.

My Current Strategy:

Spot: Accumulate within the 54K-60K demand zone and take profit into strength.

Swing: Watch the 68K-72K resistance for short entries if there is a developing bearish technical confirmation.

Note: This is not financial advice and is a representation of my current market view. Please consult with a professional for investment advice and ensure that you are trading within your own risk tolerance.

Otherwise, for now my outlook remains the same: without changes to the higher time frame market structure, I maintain a bearish bias while looking to 68K-72K for any future entry opportunities.

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