July 5 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report: Beware of Holiday Rebound Traps, Do Not Mistake the Rebound for a Reversal!

Everyone should be wary of the "holiday rebound trap." This round of upward movement occurred during the low trading volume of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with low liquidity amplifying short-term volatility. Weekend cryptocurrency trends often occur in an environment of thin liquidity, making such rebounds highly susceptible to violent reversals. However, do not mistake the rebound for a reversal. Today's approach is primarily short-selling from high levels!

First, let's discuss today's strategy:

Bitcoin focus on the upper area: resistance around 63600～64000～64800, target on the lower area: 62200～60800～58000 (reduce position by 70%), remaining position continues to target around 55500～53000.

Ethereum focus on the upper area: resistance around 1830～1850～1880, target on the lower area: 1750～1720～1650～1620～1550～1500 (reduce position by 70%), remaining position continues to target around 1450～1350.

July is destined to be extraordinary. Short positions are still stuck. It is recommended to continue holding the short positions from Thursday, BTC 62400～63600 and ETH 1724～1755. The current trend is still bearish, and the market has not reversed. As long as positions are safe, there is no need to worry too much!

Recent non-farm employment data was weak, cooling market expectations of aggressive short-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to some upward price movement. ETF weekly outflows continue. In the four trading days up to July 2, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $527 million, marking the eighth consecutive week of net outflows, setting a record for the longest weekly outflow streak since the products were launched.

After being halved from the historical high of $126k, the medium-term bearish trend has not reversed. This is merely a technical repair rebound after the decline, not a bull market reversal. On the daily chart, MACD shows a golden cross in the low range, with bearish momentum weakening, but the price remains under pressure from the medium and long-term moving averages EMA55 and EMA144. On the four-hour chart, RSI has entered overbought territory and turned downward, limiting the rebound space. KDJ has formed a death cross and is diverging downward, with clear exhaustion of bullish momentum. Do not blindly chase the rally! Personally, I believe the current market is still a bearish continuation pattern. It will continue to decline further. The price increase during the U.S. holiday period with poor liquidity is just a facade, and the downtrend will ultimately resume! #gStocks代币化股票上线 #非农爆冷打压加息预期 #预测世界杯巴西VS挪威