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Kalshi's June trading volume reached a record $9.4 billion, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market transactions.

MarsBitNews
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Mars Finance news, July 5 - Driven by the 2026 World Cup, U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi saw its June trading volume rise to approximately $9.4 billion, up nearly 77% from about $5.3 billion in May, setting a new all-time high. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from about $3.5 billion to about $4.3 billion. Data shows that the World Cup became the main catalyst driving growth in prediction market trading. As this World Cup expanded to 48 teams for the first time, the number of matches and knockout scenarios increased, leading to active trading in single-match contracts. Among them, the Round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million and $26.8 million on Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively. However, the rapid growth in trading volume has also intensified regulatory controversy. Multiple U.S. states continue to argue that sports event contracts should be subject to gambling regulation, rather than being part of the derivatives market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). At the same time, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently reminded that some event contracts may already fall under existing binary options regulation. Analysis suggests that the World Cup has validated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports event prediction contracts should be governed by financial derivatives regulation or gambling regulation in the future remains a core regulatory issue facing the industry.
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