Today (July 5), market sentiment has clearly rebounded. $BTC Bitcoin first reclaimed the $63,000 level for the first time in two weeks, largely erasing the pullback losses from late June, with a weekly gain of about 3.6%.

· 📈 Market and liquidations: BTC is currently around $62,634, while $ETH is at $1,759. $XRP led among major coins, up more than 5% over 24 hours, surpassing USDC in market cap to move into fifth place. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire network reached $208 million, and more than 65,000 positions were cleared, with short positions dominating. (How are those who chased shorts at $58k doing now?)
· 📊 Macros: Rate-hike expectations cool: June non-farm payrolls rose by only 57k, far below expectations. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in July rose to 82.4%, while the odds of a rate hike versus no hike in September are almost tied (about 46%). (From “must raise rates” to “may not raise,” the Fed’s mouth ultimately couldn’t outmatch the data.)
· 🌍 Geopolitics: US-Iran negotiations and the Russia-Ukraine situation: A new round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan. Trump spoke with Putin and Zelenskyy separately, and Putin said he favors a political solution to the Ukraine issue. (Gold and oil are up, and BTC is also up—both the safe-haven and easing logic are running at the same time. How long can this “dual drive” last?)
· 🏛️ Industry: MiCA goes into effect, OUSD challenges the stablecoin order: The transition period for the EU MiCA regulations has officially ended. Crypto service providers operating in Europe must hold full licenses. The stablecoin OUSD, supported by more than 140 institutions, may challenge USDC’s market leadership. (After Circle’s share price plunged 17%, the real hard fight is just beginning.)

Low-liquidity holidays often amplify short-term volatility. The true directional decision will still depend on institutional capital flowing back after the holiday and the upcoming U.S. inflation data. Do you think this BTC move is a reversal or just a bounce?