Market sentiment has clearly rebounded today (July 5). $BTC Bitcoin for the first time in two weeks has moved above $63,000, basically recovering the late-June pullback losses; the weekly gain is about 3.6%.

· 📈 Market & liquidations: BTC is currently around $62,634, and $ETH is at $1,759. $XRP is leading among major coins, up more than 5% in 24 hours; market capitalization has surpassed USDC to rise to fifth place. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the entire network reached $208 million, with over 65,000 people liquidated, with short liquidations dominating. (How are those who chased shorts at $58k doing now?)
· 📊 Macros: Rate-hike expectations cool off. June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57k, far below expectations. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in July has risen to 82.4%, and the probabilities of a rate hike versus no rate hike in September are nearly the same (about 46%). (From “must raise rates” to “maybe not raise,” the Federal Reserve’s words ultimately weren’t as firm as the data.)
· 🌍 Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran talks and the Russia-Ukraine situation. The next round of U.S.-Iran talks is scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan. Trump spoke separately with Putin and Zelensky, and Putin said he favors a political solution to the Ukraine issue. (Gold and oil are up, and BTC is also up—both the safe-haven and easing logic are running at the same time. How long can this “dual drive” last?)
· 🏛️ Industry: MiCA goes into effect, OUSD challenges the stablecoin landscape. The transition period for the EU’s MiCA regulation has officially ended, and crypto service providers operating in Europe must hold full licenses. Stablecoin OUSD, supported by more than 140 institutions, may challenge USDC’s market dominance. (After Circle’s share price crashed by 17%, the real hard fight is just beginning.)

Low-liquidity holidays often magnify short-term volatility. The real directional choice still depends on the return of institutional capital after the holiday and the upcoming U.S. inflation data. Do you think this BTC move is a reversal or just a rebound?