Market sentiment has notably improved today (July 5). $BTC Bitcoin stood above $63,000 for the first time in two weeks, essentially recovering the pullback losses from the end of June, with a weekly gain of about 3.6%.

· 📈 Market and Liquidations: BTC currently at ~$62,634, $ETH at $1,759. $XRP leads the altcoins, up over 5% in 24 hours, surpassing USDC in market cap to claim fifth place. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $208 million, with over 65k people liquidated, shorts dominating. (Those who chased shorts at $58k, how are you doing now?)
· 📊 Macro: Rate hike expectations cool down: June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57k, far below expectations; probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July rose to 82.4%, while the probabilities of a rate hike and no rate hike in September are almost equal (about 46%). (From "must hike" to "may not hike," the Fed's mouth is ultimately no match for the data.)
· 🌍 Geopolitics: US-Iran talks and Russia-Ukraine situation: A new round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan. Trump spoke separately with Putin and Zelensky, with Putin expressing a preference for a political solution to the Ukraine issue. (Gold and oil are up, and BTC is also up—both safe-haven and easing logic are at play simultaneously. How long can this "dual driver" last?)
· 🏛️ Industry: MiCA takes effect, OUSD challenges the stablecoin landscape: The transition period for the EU's MiCA regulation has officially ended, and crypto service providers operating in Europe must hold full licenses. The stablecoin OUSD, backed by over 140 institutions, may challenge USDC's market dominance. (After Circle's stock plunged 17%, the real tough battle is just beginning.)

Low liquidity during holidays often amplifies short-term volatility. The true direction will depend on institutional capital returning after the holiday and the upcoming US inflation data. Do you think this BTC move is a reversal or a rally?