Kalshi's June trading volume reached a record high of $9.4 billion, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.

BlockBeats news, July 5, driven by the 2026 World Cup, the US prediction market platform Kalshi's June trading volume rose to approximately $9.4 billion, up nearly 77% from about $5.3 billion in May, hitting a new all-time high. In the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from about $3.5 billion to about $4.3 billion.

The data shows that the World Cup has become the main catalyst driving growth in prediction market trading. As this year's World Cup expanded to 48 teams for the first time, the number of matches and knockout scenarios increased, fueling active trading in individual match contracts. Among them, the Round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceed $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket, respectively.

However, the rapid growth in trading volume has further heated up regulatory controversy. Multiple US states continue to argue that sports event contracts should fall under gambling regulation, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event contracts may already fall within the scope of existing binary options regulation.

Analysts believe the World Cup has validated the prediction market's ability to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports event prediction contracts should ultimately be subject to financial derivatives regulation or gambling regulation remains the core regulatory issue facing the industry.