Macro Outlook for Next Week: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank Meeting Minutes Ahead, Earnings Schedule Relatively Light

ME News, July 5 (UTC+8). This week, due to weak US non-farm payroll growth data, the US dollar weakened against most major currencies, with the largest declines against the New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, and British pound. Spot gold and silver closed on Friday at $4,174.66 and $62.38 per ounce, respectively, up 2.29% and 6.1%. Gold reversed its decline this week and rebounded; on Friday, it briefly hit $4,200 per ounce, its first weekly close higher in five weeks. Although crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict may not have fully worked through to the broader economy. Below are the key items the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time).

Monday 17:00, Eurozone May PPI month-on-month; Eurozone May retail sales month-on-month
Monday 21:45, US June S&P Global Services PMI (final)
Monday 22:00, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Monday 23:00, speeches by Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Swedish Deputy Governor Thedéen
Tuesday 20:15, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending June 20
Wednesday 22:00, US May wholesale sales month-on-month
Wednesday 22:30, US weekly EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week ending July 3
Thursday 02:00, Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes
Thursday 19:30, ECB releases June monetary policy meeting minutes
Thursday 20:30, US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4
Thursday 21:00, speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams
Friday 01:30, speech by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan

The Fed’s latest meeting minutes will be the highlight of next week’s economic calendar, as investors hope to find more clues on whether and when US interest rates may be raised. The latest meeting minutes will be released in the early hours of Thursday, the first meeting since the newly appointed Fed Chair Walsh took office, when rates were kept unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range. As the 2026 second-quarter earnings season gradually gets underway, next week’s reporting calendar is relatively light, mainly focusing on a few companies in sectors such as consumer staples, apparel, and airlines. This is also a transitional period before the peak of major bank earnings in mid-July. (Source: PANews)