BTC and ETH have risen for 4 consecutive days! Is this a real rebound or a short-lived dead cat bounce?

🔥Let's lay out the core data first
BTC current price: $62,702
7-day low: $57,813, 7-day gain: 8.5%

ETH current price: $1,761
7-day low: $1,512, 7-day gain: 16.5%

ETH's gain is directly double that of BTC, showing clearly stronger momentum

This round of consecutive upward movement, four underlying reasons

Reason 1: The $13 billion options short bomb has been completely digested

Consider these options as a time bomb that was settled on June 27.
Before expiration on June 24–25, market makers frantically sold spot to hedge risk, BTC plummeted 4.5% in a single hour, ETH dropped 4% simultaneously.
After delivery, market makers no longer need to passively sell, the largest source of sell pressure in the market disappeared, and downward pressure was largely relieved.

Reason 2: Three consecutive days of support at the $57,800 bottom, all institutional buy orders

From June 29 to July 1, BTC was stuck in the $57,800–$59,000 range grinding:
June 29 close: $58,900
June 30 close: $58,188
July 01 close: $57,813

Every time it dropped near $58,000, there was massive buying support.
Retail investors don't have unified capital and cannot defend the bottom for three consecutive days. Only long-term institutions can steadily absorb the selling pressure.

Reason 3: Bottom accumulation completed, volume surge launched the rally on July 2

On the afternoon of July 2, BTC trading volume suddenly doubled, with a single 4-hour candle trading $176 million, twice the average volume of previous days.
Price directly broke from 60k to 61k.
Analogy to a vegetable market: Institutions collected low-price chips at the floor for 3 days, stocked up enough, and started actively driving the market up.

Reason 4: ETH's rebound strength crushes BTC, supported by dual logic

Comparison of this adjustment magnitude:
BTC high 65,800 → low 57,813, max drawdown 12%
ETH high 1,850 → low 1,512, max drawdown 18%

Deeper decline naturally allows larger room for recovery rebound.
Plus, the market continues to price in the expectation of an ETH spot ETF approval, so capital prefers to concentrate on Ethereum, directly widening the gap in gains.

Break down the complete operation timeline of institutions and whales

1️⃣ June 29 – July 1: Accumulation phase
Bottom low-volume consolidation, all panic stop-loss positions cleared, only long-term flat-holding capital remains, institutions quietly buy coins in batches at low prices.

2️⃣ July 2: Volume-driven rally phase
Whales concentrate capital to break through key resistance, trading volume significantly expands, consecutively hold levels at 61k and 62,000. Retail investors cannot generate such a move.

3️⃣ July 3–4: Gentle push-up phase
Pull and wash simultaneously, volume stable without explosion, steadily raise market holding cost basis.

4️⃣ Today, July 5: Low-volume consolidation
After four consecutive days of rally, capital pauses its offensive, institutions wait for new positive catalysts, short-term enters a period of oscillation and rest.

Clear forecast for future trend (short-term + medium-term separately)

Short-term 1–3 days: Likely a small pullback for profit-taking

After 4 consecutive days of continuous rise, funds that entered at low levels have a need to take profits and lock in gains, technically requiring a pullback to recharge, which is a healthy correction.
Key price levels for reference:
BTC
Support: $61,500
Strong resistance: $63,500
Holding above 62,000 indicates strong consolidation; effectively breaking below 61,500, it will further test the 60k level.

ETH
Support: $1,700
Strong resistance: $1,810

Medium-term 1–2 weeks: Upward trend not over, continue to be bullish

Four core supporting logics:
✅ Triple bottom at $57,800 confirmed, downside space completely sealed
✅ Institutions hold low-cost chips, bottom accumulation complete, they won't stop halfway
✅ Options settlement bearish news fully cleared, no concentrated sell-off risk
✅ ETH's bottom support strength is stronger than BTC, with greater elasticity

Breakout target levels:
BTC holds $63,500 → next target $65,000–$66,000
ETH breaks $1,810 → targets $1,900

One-sentence summary of the article

This wave of consecutive rises is by no means a short-term dead cat bounce, but a substantive recovery rally after the clearing of tens of billions in options bearish factors and the completion of bottom accumulation by institutions.
However, the short-term upward speed is too fast, so there is a need for a small pullback to recharge.
Hold steady above 62,000, and if it breaks 63,500, look towards the previous high range.

💬Interactive question
Are you currently holding and watching, or have you already boarded the train in batches to position? Share your views in the comments section👇

#BTC #ETH #行情分析