$BTC July 5 Morning Market Insights

From the chart perspective, the 4-hour long-term upward structure has not fully reversed, but after reaching the previous resistance zone, bullish momentum has significantly faded. The candlesticks continue to stall, and the upward rhythm has come to a halt. On the 1-hour short-term timeframe, a pattern of rally followed by decline has emerged, with highs gradually moving lower, weak rebounds, and constant selling pressure. All short-term moving averages are now exerting downward pressure on price, confirming a weak short-term structure. For bulls to break through the previous high again faces numerous obstacles, and the market has entered an adjustment phase.

The divergence signal on the capital side is even more concerning. The contract CVD continues to hit new highs, with a large number of speculative retail traders piling in to chase the rally. Meanwhile, the spot CVD has been declining after peaking, as major spot capital steadily exits at high levels. This hot-and-cold divergence in capital flow is a key indicator of an impending pullback, which is the fundamental reason I have repeatedly warned against chasing highs. The current price is approaching strong resistance at 63,500. The market is likely to face downward pressure here. Even if it briefly breaks to a new high, it will quickly pull back. Coupled with strong retail sentiment to go long and high funding rates, a large number of long positions are piled up at highs. Once the decline starts, concentrated stop-losses will amplify the drop.

Sunday Morning Trading Strategy

Bitcoin: Short around 63,000-63,500, target 60,500
Ethereum: Short around 1,780-1,800, target 1,720