#ETH突破1700 Bitcoin and Ethereum July 5 Observations: Stronger Oscillation in the Pressure Zone, Breakout or Pullback?

On July 5, 2026, Bitcoin oscillated around $63,000 and Ethereum around $1,775. BTC's 4H structure remains bullish, but the 1H has already fallen below MA5/MA10, facing short-term pullback pressure; ETH hit $1,807 during the session before retreating, with the $1,800 integer level acting as heavy resistance. Combined with the current macro environment—the Fed's hawkish stance unchanged, spot ETFs recording the largest monthly net outflow in history in June, and Strategy announcing a $1.25 billion Bitcoin liquidation plan—the market is in a fierce tug-of-war between the seasonal expectation of a "strongest July on record" and a structural bear market. This article provides a deep dive from three dimensions—technical analysis, on-chain data, and macro variables—offering traders actionable price ranges and strategic frameworks.
I. Technical Analysis: Stronger Oscillation Pattern, but Entering a Pressure Zone
Bitcoin: 4H Bullish, 1H Weakening, Key Level at $63,500
Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,000, with a 24-hour high of approximately $63,460 and a low of about $62,330, showing an overall stronger oscillation. Structurally, the 4H level remains bullish, with prices trading above short-term moving averages. However, the 1H level has already fallen back below MA5 and MA10—a warning sign indicating that short-term bullish momentum has weakened and the market may need a pullback. Key resistance zones above are concentrated in two areas: the first is $63,400–$63,500, a level repeatedly tested intraday without a clear breakout; the second is $63,800–$64,000, where a firm hold and breakout could open further upside. Support below is tiered: first support at $62,850–$62,750, an area that has held multiple times during the day; if this level is lost, the next support will be tested at $62,500 and the stronger support zone of $62,300–$62,000. In terms of strategy, if Bitcoin can reclaim $63,200 and break above $63,500 with volume, the short-term target is $63,800–$64,000; conversely, if it falls below $62,850, a pullback to the $62,750–$62,500 range for support is possible. The current position is not suitable for blindly chasing longs; a more rational approach is to wait for a confirmed breakout or a pullback entry.
Ethereum: $1,800 Becomes an "Impassable Barrier," Breakout Requires BTC Support
Ethereum is currently trading around $1,775, spiking to $1,807 during the session before quickly retreating—clearly indicating strong selling pressure near the $1,800 integer level. In terms of correlation, ETH's movement is highly dependent on BTC: when BTC oscillates around $63,000, ETH struggles to independently break out. ETH's resistance zones above are also clear: the first level is $1,785–$1,790, where the price faced multiple rejections intraday; the second is $1,800–$1,810, with the session high of $1,807 exactly falling into this range before a sharp pullback, suggesting very determined bearish force in that area. On the support side, the first support is at $1,760–$1,765, with the second at $1,750–$1,744. If this range is lost, the next stronger support will be tested at $1,720–$1,730. ETH's trading logic is similar to BTC: reclaiming $1,790 is the first step, and breaking $1,800 is the confirmation signal. Until BTC effectively breaks above $63,500, the probability of ETH independently breaking $1,800 is low. Falling below $1,760–$1,765 could lead to a pullback to $1,750–$1,744 for support.
II. Macro Perspective: Can the "Strongest July on Record" Materialize Under Triple Pressure?
Fed Remains Hawkish, July 30 Rate Decision a Key Watershed
The current macro environment significantly pressures the cryptocurrency market. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintains a hawkish stance, with market pricing indicating an 80% probability of a rate hike in December. The Fed's rate decision on July 30 will be the core macro event of the month, directly impacting the short-term direction of risk assets—including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Grayscale previously warned that Bitcoin's bottom depends on the stalled CLARITY Act, the Fed's rate hike path, and the deleveraging process of digital asset trusts. In a context of tightening rate expectations, the appeal of crypto assets as high-risk assets is diminished. Spot ETFs Recorded the Largest Monthly Net Outflow in History in June, Institutional Capital Continues to Exit
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $4.06 billion in June, the largest monthly outflow on record, with net sales of about 71,600 BTC. This data indicates that institutional investors are exiting on a large scale, with market oversupply reaching approximately 77,000 BTC (about $4.4 billion). ETF outflows are a major driver of the recent decline, and their persistence will directly determine whether the market can achieve an effective rebound in July. Strategy's "Never Sell" Myth Broken, Psychological Impact Far Greater Than Substance
The strategic shift by the largest corporate holder, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has further shaken market confidence. On June 1, the company disclosed the sale of 32 BTC—its first sale since December 2022—and on June 29, announced authorization for a potential Bitcoin liquidation plan of up to $1.25 billion to bolster cash reserves, pay preferred stock dividends, and support stock buybacks. Although the actual impact of selling 32 BTC is negligible, the first loosening of the "never sell" stance by a benchmark company carries a psychological impact far exceeding actual selling pressure. Strategy's average holding cost is approximately $75,699, well above the current market price. If Bitcoin remains depressed, the company may face greater financial pressure, potentially creating a vicious cycle of "price decline → forced reduction → further price decline."
III. On-Chain Data: Whales Accumulate, but Old Holders Begin Selling at a Loss
Whales Accumulate Counter-Trend, Exchange Inflows Signal Hidden Risk
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $53,300–$53,400, with the current price only about 12% higher—still above the long-term cost basis. Since the end of the last bear market in 2022, BTC has never traded below this level. When Bitcoin's price neared $60k in late June, whales withdrew over 11,400 BTC (approximately $700 million) from exchanges into cold storage. Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have been accumulating during the decline, indicating long-term capital's recognition of current prices.
However, risk signals also exist: the exchange whale ratio has risen to a local high of about 0.69, suggesting that the proportion of large inflows to exchanges is increasing, hinting that some whales may be preparing to sell. This contradictory behavior—"accumulating while preparing to distribute"—reflects serious divergence within the market about the future direction. Loss-Making Supply Hits All-Time High, Long-Term Holder SOPR Drops Below 1
Bitcoin's loss-making supply has risen to an all-time high of 10.83 million BTC, one of the deepest readings of this cycle. The long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to 0.662, indicating that old holders have begun to sell at a loss—a classic bear market bottom signal, but also suggesting the market may not have completed its final leg down. Historical experience shows that when SOPR remains below 1, the market is often in a panic selling phase. Although this typically presents a window for long-term accumulation, short-term further downside is still possible.
IV. July Seasonal Pattern: Hope and Trap Coexist
From a seasonal perspective, Bitcoin's performance in July is historically the strongest summer month, with an average gain of 7.6% over the past 13 years and a median gain of 8.1%. This data offers a glimmer of hope for the currently depressed market.
However, seasonal patterns are probabilities, not certainties. The market currently faces triple pressures—persistent ETF outflows, the failure of the halving cycle pattern (the 2024 April halving should have driven a bull market 12-18 months later, but the first half of 2026 saw a total decline of about 30%), and shrinking institutional buying—making the realization of a "strongest July on record" significantly more difficult.
Multiple institutions have wildly divergent price predictions for July and the second half of the year: Bitf sees $40k range, 10x Research sees $55k, Jiang Zhuor's mNAV model sees $42k–$44k, while TD Cowen sees approximately $100k by end of 2026. A prediction range spanning from $40k to $100k—a full $60k gap—itself indicates extreme uncertainty in the current market.
V. Strategy Advice: Don't Chase Longs, Wait for Confirmation or Pullback
Combining technicals, macro, and on-chain data, BTC/ETH are currently in a stronger oscillation pattern but have entered a pressure zone. Blindly chasing longs is not advisable.
For Bitcoin: Short-term focus on whether $63,200 can be reclaimed and whether $63,500 can be broken with volume. If a breakout is confirmed, target $63,800–$64,000; if $62,850 is lost, expect a pullback to $62,750–$62,500 for support. Medium-term, $62,000–$62,300 is an important support zone; if lost, a further test of the $60,000 integer level is possible.
For Ethereum: Short-term focus on whether $1,790 can be reclaimed and whether $1,800 can be broken. Until BTC effectively breaks above $63,500, the probability of ETH strengthening independently is low. Falling below $1,760–$1,765 leads to a pullback to $1,750–$1,744.
Overall Strategy: The current position is more suitable for waiting and observing, looking for two scenarios: either follow the trend after a confirmed breakout, or buy on dips at key support zones. Until the macro environment shows clear signs of warming (e.g., the Fed releasing dovish signals, ETF inflows resuming, or regulatory clarity), maintain a cautious position and avoid heavy betting on a single direction.

This article is for market analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.