MIRAIMA goes viral in Japan as Meta enters the scene: the prediction market is “swapping shells”

Author: Zen, PANews

During the World Cup, prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen continuous increases in trading volume and user activity. Sports events are pushing prediction markets toward more mainstream consumer scenarios. In this wave of enthusiasm, another product path has captured attention within the prediction market space.

One representative of this path is the Japanese app MIRAIMA. It doesn't require users to invest cash; instead, it uses points to participate in predicting future events and rewards users based on outcomes. After about seven months since its launch, MIRAIMA has attracted nearly one million monthly active users, making it the most noteworthy example of a points-based prediction market in Japan.

Similar concepts are starting to catch the eye of large tech companies. Meta is developing a prediction market app internally named Arena and is exploring the possibility of collaborating with Polymarket and Kalshi.

How MIRAIMA Attracted One Million Monthly Active Users in Seven Months

MIRAIMA is operated by the Japanese company Masentic, which was founded in 2021 and focuses on app planning, development, and operation. Now one of Masentic's main services, MIRAIMA was released on November 19 last year as a prediction market app tailored for Japanese users. Users can predict future events on topics such as social news, sports results, politics, economy, and entertainment, earning points based on the accuracy of their predictions.

In seven months since launch, MIRAIMA has attracted nearly one million monthly active users. Similar to the growth drivers of Polymarket and Kalshi, MIRAIMA's growth is primarily fueled by major sports events, Japanese elections, and young users engaging with prediction topics.

However, in terms of participation process, MIRAIMA is lighter and does not require real money. Users first earn points by watching in-app ads, playing games, or completing tasks. Then they can use these points to predict future events such as "election results" or "sports outcomes." If the prediction is correct, points increase and can be redeemed for gift vouchers or points from other platforms.

Based on Japan's regulatory system, MIRAIMA particularly emphasizes that it has been designed under the guidance of the Daiwa Law Office, in compliance with Japan's criminal gambling laws and the Act against Unjustifiable Premiums and Misleading Representations. The Act against Unjustifiable Premiums aims to prevent unhealthy competition caused by premiums (money or goods provided as promotional incentives) and protect the interests of general consumers, thus restricting and prohibiting certain types of premiums. If premiums are too lavish, consumers might be induced to purchase goods they do not originally intend to buy.

From a product perspective, MIRAIMA resembles a combination of news quizzes, point rewards, and prediction markets. Its App Store page describes it as a "prediction market × rewards app." Users can participate in daily future Q&A covering categories like sports, weather, politics, entertainment, and technology. Results can also be discussed with other users via the comment function.

During this World Cup period, MIRAIMA's official website also features numerous football prediction markets. For example, matches like Canada vs. Morocco, Switzerland vs. Algeria, Australia vs. Egypt, and Argentina vs. Cape Verde are displayed with percentage odds and participant counts. Its page language, category divisions, and probability displays are similar to prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, with the underlying capital mechanism replaced by a points system.

Meta May Enter the Fray, Points-Based Prediction Markets Spread

In the Japanese market, MIRAIMA is not an isolated case.

Competitor Poyp launched a similar service this March, and mobile game company gumi also introduced a points-based prediction game in June.

Poyp positions itself as a smartphone app utilizing prediction market mechanisms and has started offering advertising and market research services to businesses. Brands and media can create prediction "markets" within the app to attract users to predict and analyze products, content, or events. Its targets are not just user quizzes but also corporate marketing and consumer insights.

gumi's "Yosoku Hiroba" leans more toward a game company's approach to prediction entertainment. The service is completely free, and users use exclusive prediction points (Yosopo) to participate in predictions on topics like politics, economy, sports, and entertainment. Successful predictions earn reward points (gold) that can be exchanged for electronic money or other benefits. gumi also explicitly states that the service has been reviewed by lawyers and law firms familiar with the relevant fields to ensure healthy prediction entertainment without violating applicable laws such as gambling crimes.

Beyond the highly regulated Japanese market, large tech company Meta is also exploring a similar path. Meta is developing a prediction market app internally named Arena and is researching the possibility of partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi.

Unlike real-money trading platforms, Arena's current design uses a game-like points system, targeting users aged 18 to 34. Meta also envisions attracting at least 100 million monthly active users in the future. For Meta, the points model can reduce early compliance pressure, avoid issues related to gambling, derivatives, state gaming regulations, and make it easier to integrate with existing traffic sources like Facebook and Messenger.

In fact, Meta is not new to prediction products. It launched an experimental app called Forecast in 2020. Users could ask questions about future events, use in-app points to make predictions, and discuss why they predicted certain outcomes. However, due to poor reception, the product was shut down in 2022. The brewing Arena can be seen as Meta's renewed attempt at prediction products amid the rising popularity of prediction markets.

From Trading Markets to Point Games: Regulatory Pressure Behind Path Divergence

The two mainstream prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, represent a model that requires real money for trading or betting. In contrast, platforms like MIRAIMA and Poyp, which use points as the "prediction cost," are structurally closer to point activities, ad incentives, gamified tasks, and market research rather than financial contract trading.

The main factor behind this difference is regulatory pressure. Japan's criminal law strictly prohibits gambling, and the country has always been cautious about overseas online gambling and crypto trading services. On June 15, crypto exchange bitbank issued a notice stating that if it confirms users have deposit/withdrawal interactions with betting-type prediction market services like Polymarket, it may take measures such as account suspension. bitbank also reminded that Japanese residents accessing overseas prediction markets from within Japan and using them for monetary gain may involve risks of gambling behavior.

On points-based platforms, users do not invest principal with property value, nor do they face direct cash payouts. Their business model shifts toward advertising, tasks, user growth, brand marketing, and data services. Additionally, Japan has a long-standing points economy, gift card redemption, and digital point ecosystems like PayPay and Rakuten. Users are already accustomed to "accumulating points and exchanging for rewards." MIRAIMA founder Keita Adachi stated in reports that since Japan cannot do real-money gambling, the platform was designed around Japan's strong gaming and points culture.

However, points-based prediction markets do not mean the disappearance of regulatory risk. If reward points can be redeemed for gift cards, electronic money, or other economically valuable benefits, regulators may still monitor issues related to lotteries, promotional giveaways, minor participation, or inducing addiction. Quoting reports, Yogonet pointed out that some legal experts believe such platforms may still face stricter scrutiny in the future, especially when rewards have monetary value, user bases grow rapidly, and age restrictions are less strict than real-money platforms.

Regardless, MIRAIMA's popularity demonstrates an alternative business path. For jurisdictions where real-money prediction markets are difficult to implement directly, or for companies seeking to avoid compliance risks, platforms can package prediction behavior with points, ads, and reward systems, transforming prediction markets from financial trading products into content interaction products.

This "light compliance, heavy growth" route is set to attract increasing attention and emulators worldwide.