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$OGN Just 25 minutes ago, shorts were liquidated. Now at 0.0199, my position is up 13% floating, but 20% of people are trapped at the 24h high.
Step 1, first understand clearly: $OGN 24h amplitude 47%, trading volume 55M, this volume is 5 times the usual, indicating that capital just woke up. But the candlestick wick is too long; 0.0230 is an emotional top, not a turnover top — if this is a capital test, a pullback to around 0.0185 and holding steady would be a good entry for long, stop loss 0.0175, target 0.0225. If it breaks below 0.0185 and does not recover quickly, it means today's pump is a false breakout, immediately go short in reverse, stop loss 0.0195, target 0.0160.
I have already set take-profit for 50% of my position at 0.0215, and placed a trailing stop for the rest. Note that liquidity is poor in the early morning, easy to wick and liquidate both longs and shorts.
Two scenarios predicted: Scenario A (60% probability): after a small-level pullback and consolidation in the 0.0192-0.0195 range, it will rally again above 0.021 before 4 PM, as long as the hourly chart does not break 0.0188, continue holding long. Scenario B (40% probability): major players distribute overnight, a single candle plunges below 0.0180, any low-volume bounce during the session is a bull trap, directly go flat and wait.
Enter strictly according to the plan, position not exceeding 15%. Now wait for confirmation before adding. Don't gamble on breakouts, wait for pullbacks to eat the middle part of the move. For this wave, I'm anchoring at the previous high of 0.022 with a pending take-profit order for half, the other half depends on the situation.
Results updated in the comments section.