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#广场预测世界杯赢40000U Spain is certain to beat Portugal? Not necessarily!
The highlight of this World Cup is coming.
After both Spain and Portugal advanced to the Round of 16, the next 1/8 knockout match will feature the "Iberian Derby". That classic match in 2018 seems like just yesterday.
From the perspective of paper strength and team completeness, Spain is one of the strongest teams in this World Cup. Although they were held to a draw by Cape Verde in the first round, their subsequent strong performances made that irrelevant. The match against Austria spoke volumes. Despite Rangnick's extensive preparations targeting Spain, those "clever strategies" were nothing under the absolute power disparity. Spain didn't even suffer minor injuries and easily crushed Austria. Yamal is in hot form, and Oyarzabal is on fire too. It's hard to say that this Spanish team has reached the pinnacle of the 2010 championship-winning team, but they are certainly not to be trifled with. It's also worth noting that we shouldn't overlook Cubarsi, who has been putting in world-class performances for several consecutive games. His defensive partnership with Laporte is top-notch. Also, don't forget that Iglesias still hasn't gotten playing time, which shows that Spain has far from shown its sharpest fangs and doesn't need to play its trump cards early. Spain has been advancing with great momentum, while Portugal has been stumbling along. Will the match really be one-sided in favor of Spain? Not necessarily.
Many times, we overlook Portugal's combat effectiveness against European teams. If we don't count Croatia, they have remained unbeaten within 90 minutes against top-tier European teams over the past two years. In last year's Nations League match, Spain couldn't gain any advantage over Portugal. Something Spain should pay more attention to is Portugal's left-back Nuno Mendes, who is often called "Yamal's strictest father." Whether in club or national team matches, Yamal rarely gains an advantage when facing Mendes. And Oyarzabal, as a system player, may struggle against Portugal, which requires other attacking points in Portugal's front line to step up. This could be a very unfavorable point for Spain. In the match against Austria, Ferran Torres played another game of "happy football"; we must admit he is not a top attacker. Nico Williams is also affected by injury. Once Yamal gets "schooled" by Mendes again, the situation will be very unfavorable for Spain. But these premises we put forward need to be based on Portugal performing at their normal level. So far, Portugal has not put on a convincing performance in this World Cup. Martinez has overbuilt the team around Ronaldo, making Ronaldo play awkwardly and Portugal suffer as a result. Moreover, Portugal's attack has been severely limited in speed; most of the time they can only slowly pass the ball forward while standing still.
Furthermore, once Portugal can't get up to speed, the match falls perfectly into Spain's comfort zone. Even if Portugal's midfield is very luxurious and their defense is decent, playing like this against Spain is basically suicide. So, whether Portugal can go toe-to-toe with Spain depends on whether Martinez can wake up in time. If he remains stubborn about winning with the team shining under Ronaldo, this Portugal team—let alone winning—will have trouble even getting the ball to Ronaldo's feet. But if they can promptly adjust Ronaldo's role in the team, based on Portugal's personnel configuration and individual ability, they absolutely have a chance. It also needs to be pointed out that Ronaldo is not unable to play a role in matches against Spain. It should be noted that although Cubarsi has been flawless in these matches, he is essentially an overly aggressive defender. It's very important that Laporte cleans up behind him. For an experienced forward like Ronaldo, it's easier for him to see through the weaknesses of a young player like Cubarsi. The goal in last year's Nations League final is a good example. Don't look at Ronaldo being unable to run normally; in critical moments, he can arrive at the most crucial position earlier than others. This even leads to a new issue.
Facing a team like Spain, the longer the match drags on, the greater Ronaldo's value may be. However, Ronaldo's current physical condition may not last the whole game against Spain. Putting him on the bench as a "tactical substitution" (like the strategy of "Tian Ji's horse racing") might be a better choice. But does Martinez really have the courage to do that?
The highlight of this World Cup is about to arrive.
After both Spain and Portugal advanced to the round of 16, the next round of the knockout stage will feature an "Iberian Derby," and the classic match from 2018 still feels like yesterday.
But in terms of paper strength and team completeness, Spain is one of the strongest teams in this World Cup. Although they were held to a draw by Cape Verde in their opening match, their dominance in subsequent games made that irrelevant. The match against Austria revealed a lot. Despite Ragnick's extensive preparations targeting Spain, those "clever tactics" were nothing under the absolute crushing power of Spain. Spain didn't even suffer any scratches and easily dismantled Austria. Yamal is in great form, and Oyarzabal is also on a hot streak. It's hard to say this Spanish team has reached the pinnacle of the 2010 championship-winning squad, but they are certainly not to be trifled with. It's also worth noting that we shouldn't overlook Kubarsi, who has put in world-class performances in consecutive games. His defensive partnership with Laporte is top-tier. Don't forget that Iglesias still can't get playing time, which shows that this Spanish team hasn't even shown its fiercest teeth yet and doesn't need to play its cards early. Spain is charging forward, while Portugal is stumbling along. Will the match really be one-sided in Spain's favor? Not necessarily.
Many times, we overlook Portugal's combat effectiveness against European teams. If Croatia isn't counted, Portugal has remained unbeaten against top European sides within 90 minutes over the past two years. In last year's Nations League match, Spain didn't gain any advantage over Portugal. What Spain should pay more attention to is Portugal's left-back Nuno Mendes, who is often called "Yamal's strictest father." Whether in club or national team matches, Yamal has struggled to get the better of Mendes in their matchups. As for Oyarzabal, as a system player, he might find it tough against Portugal, which means Portugal needs other attacking options upfront to provide support. This could be a very unfavorable factor for Spain. In the match against Austria, Ferran Torres played another game of "happy football." It's fair to say he's not a top-tier attacker, and Nico Williams is dealing with injuries. Once Yamal gets "schooled" by Mendes again, the situation could turn very unfavorable for Spain. However, these premises we've raised need to be based on Portugal playing at a normal level. So far, Portugal hasn't delivered a convincing performance in this World Cup. Martínez's over-reliance on building the team around Ronaldo has made Ronaldo uncomfortable and Portugal's play painful. Moreover, Portugal's attack is severely limited in speed; most of the time, they can only slowly move the ball forward.
Further, if Portugal can't pick up the pace, the match will fall into Spain's most comfortable rhythm. Even though Portugal's midfield is very luxurious and their defense line is decent, playing like that against Spain is basically suicide. Therefore, whether Portugal can go toe-to-toe with Spain depends on whether Martínez can have a timely awakening. If he still insists on winning with the team shining under Ronaldo, then winning is out of the question—let alone getting the ball to Ronaldo's feet. But if he can correct Ronaldo's role in the team in time, based on Portugal's personnel configuration and individual abilities, they absolutely have a fighting chance. It also needs to be pointed out that Ronaldo isn't useless against Spain. We need to remind that although Kubarsi has been impeccable in recent matches, he is essentially an overly aggressive defender. Laporte covering for him is crucial. For an experienced striker like Ronaldo, it's easier for him to spot the weaknesses of a young player like Kubarsi than for others. The goal in last year's Nations League final is a good example. Don't let Ronaldo's usual lack of mobility fool you; in critical moments, he can reach the most important position earlier than others. This even leads to a new issue.
Against a team like Spain, the longer the match drags on, the more valuable Ronaldo might become. But currently, Ronaldo's physical condition may not hold up for the entire match against Spain. Putting him on the bench as a "strategic reserve" might be the better choice. However, does Martínez really have the courage to do that?