Densely packed, time to start making money, brothers.

I. Qualitative assessment of the current overall major trend

1. The medium-to-long-term daily trend remains in a bearish downward channel. In June, it plunged 35% overall, from 1850 straight down to the stage low of $1505. The current stage is merely an oversold technical rebound repair after the sharp decline, and it has not reversed the downtrend. The volume during the rebound is weak, and there is insufficient willingness for long-side incremental funds to enter.

2. ETH's performance has been weaker than Bitcoin for a long time, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuously declining. Funds are preferentially flocking to BTC. The Ethereum spot ETF frequently sees periodic net outflows, and institutional buying willingness is low, which is the most core bearish factor suppressing the market.

3. After the previous deep decline on the daily chart, the RSI entered the oversold zone, and there is a short-term need for correction and rebound. The market has now entered a box consolidation phase between $1600 and $1800, grinding for direction. It is difficult to see a unilateral large rise or fall in the short term.

II. Precise Key Support and Resistance Levels + Concentrated Liquidation Zones (Key Reference for Contracts)

(1) Upward Resistance Levels (from near to far)

1. First Intraday Heavy Resistance: 1765–1780 USDT
The current price is close to this resistance zone, which is piled up with short-term bottom-fishing retail trapped positions, while also concentrating short-side limit orders and long-side profit-taking orders. Without volume, a surge upward will likely fall back directly. This is the first hurdle of the current rebound; only by breaking through and holding can it open upward space.

2. Medium-term Strong Resistance: 1800–1845 USDT
The daily 20-day moving average + previous consolidation platform. It is a batch of short-term long liquidation points and also a layout area for the main short forces. As long as it cannot hold 1845, all rebounds are weak rebound trends.

3. Trend Reversal Watershed: 1960–2000 USDT
A monthly-level heavy critical level. Only by breaking through and holding $2000 with volume can it end the two consecutive months of decline and completely reverse the medium-term bearish pattern. It is very difficult to achieve in the short term.

(2) Downward Support Levels + Leverage Concentration Liquidation Zones

1. Short-term Immediate Support: 1720–1730 USDT
The lifeline of this rebound. Once it breaks down, the short-term rebound is directly declared over, and the market returns to weak oscillation and downside.

2. Core Long Defense Bottom: 1650–1680 USDT
A large number of spot bottom-fishing and low-level long chip cost areas. Below it, there are massive long leverage liquidation orders. If lost, it will trigger a chain of long stampede selling.

3. Stage Life-or-Death Bottom: 1550–1600 USDT
The central position where the market tested the bottom twice in June and stabilized. $1505 is the lowest point of this round. If it effectively breaks below 1505, the longs will completely collapse, and the next downside target is the $1400–1480 range.

(3) Long/Short Concentration Liquidation Gathering Area

• Short Concentration Liquidation Zone: 1830~1860. When price rises to this level, short orders will be stopped out in batches, leading to a rapid short-term surge.

• Long Dense Liquidation Belt: 1640, 1550, 1505. If the price breaks below any of these points, it will trigger batch long liquidations and accelerate the sell-off.