Crypto Special - 4 Jul 26

Seasonally, $BTC has always had a positive month after a bloody June, this was the case in the most recent bear market (2026). A few other points make the case for the local bottom of $BTC to be in as well. Last week we had peak FUD in $MSTR and $STRC. I will not wade too deep into the debate. The point i made was that Saylor needing to sell sometime, doesnt mean he needs to sell now. Likewise, something that is unsustainable, doesnt also mean it needs to collapse now.
Shorting is extremely difficult given the risk reward it offers. Shorts need to manage their capital well and avoid vicious squeezes. In this case, we had a big squeeze on $MSTR. That was my entire rationale for taking that cheeky MSTX long.
Away from this, if $BTC has made a local bottom - what does it mean? I think we get relief rallies at the very least in tokens where attention has concentrated historically.
First - the big cap runners - "ZEC" + "HYPE" - these are the 2 tokens that have consolidated much of the attention. $ZEC in particular went through a roller coaster FUD with many participants selling out. This has reset the positioning on it and I would not be surprised if this performs strongly. $HYPE has an attention cult, it also has cash flows and is fundamentally the soundest token thus far. Both tokens have their own camps.
Next, $SOL and $ANSEM has caught on fire again. The lesson is regardless of whether you like Ansem or not - to his credit, he has ignited the trenches and attention again! $SOL's move can be entirely attributed to him. I would not be surprised if Solana foundation personally supports the token by bidding it. Whether or not $ANSEM runs, or flops - it is undeniable that he has ignited activity back into the trenches.
Lastly, one point i would like to make is that crypto rails have been steadily getting better despite crypto prices dropping. Which means that i would keep an eye out for new projects and promising things to tinker on.
In the previous cycle, we had a huge amount of grifting and scammers that extracted massively from the crypto ecosystem. In the next coming cycle, that is likely to continue to be the case. I personally hope that people can become more discerning and not fall for scams.
Good luck!