From 57,737 to 62,300, how far can this rebound go?

BTC rallied 8% from 57,737 to 62,300 in three days.
ETH and SOL followed the uptick.
The Fear and Greed Index recovered from 11 to 23 — sentiment is healing, but has the structure healed?
The rebound is driven by three factors: Non-farm payrolls only increased by 57k, less than half of expectations; the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 64% to 54%; the US dollar fell, giving risk assets a breather.
ETFs ended a 10-day streak of net outflows, recording $220 million in inflows on July 2 — money is starting to come back.
Volatility in the AI sector intensified as funds rotated out of chip stocks, making Bitcoin and gold beneficiaries; SOL's 18% weekly gain confirmed the rotation logic.
But contradictions are equally clear: CryptoQuant data shows that over 50k BTC were deposited into exchanges in a single day — whales are moving coins to exchanges.
Medium-sized whales holding 100–1,000 BTC net reduced holdings by 55k BTC over 60 days, while large whales are accumulating but their accumulation rate has dropped by 29% in two weeks.
Rising while distributing — this is not a healthy uptrend structure.
Technically, BTC's daily chart remains well below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with 62,000–64,000 being a strong resistance zone.
Polymarket shows only a 21% probability of reaching 70K by month-end — prediction markets do not expect this move to go far.
What's the outlook next? 60,000 is the lifeline for bulls — if held, the rebound continues targeting 64,000–65,000.
If not held, 57,000–57,700 will face renewed testing.
The risk of chasing above 62,000–64,000 before a breakout is extremely high.
The AIX system has marked on-chain data and capital flows as "close monitoring" status — signals are changing, the system adjusts accordingly, without emotion.
My operation: Hold existing positions, move stops up to protect profits. No new positions, wait for direction to be chosen in the 62,000–64,000 range before acting.
A rebound has arrived, but a reversal requires signal confirmation. AIX is monitoring, I am watching. No rush.