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Outlook for US-Iran diplomatic talks downgraded; confidence in predicting whether they will be held before May 15, 2026 has significantly decreased.

2026-07-04 02:56:48

ME News, April 24 (UTC+8), prediction market data shows that for the event "Will diplomatic talks be held before May 15, 2026?" regarding "the US and Iran diplomatic meeting at...?", the expected probability of "will be held" has dropped from 75.5% to 44.5%, a decrease of 31.0 percentage points in a single day.

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