BTC/ETH Morning Forecast | 2026.07.04 07:50

Yesterday's Review: Yesterday, the key watershed for BTC was 61200~61300. If held, it could still test above 62360; if it dropped back below 61200, it would be treated as a cooling oscillation. Over the past 24 hours, BTC hit a low of approximately 61174, briefly touched the lower edge of the watershed, then pulled back to around 62500 and probed 62882, concluding a partial fulfillment. ETH's key watershed yesterday was 1665~1670. If held, altcoin resilience remained. Over the past 24 hours, ETH hit a low of about 1693 and a high of about 1773, continuing to stay above the watershed, confirming the forecast. The altcoin rhythm yesterday was judged to be inclined toward offensive observation but not chasing highs. Today, ETH continues to outperform BTC, risk appetite is recovering, and the altcoin rhythm has partially materialized.

Today's Overall Judgment: The combined status of BTC and ETH still leans toward a bullish recovery, but it has entered a divergence phase after reaching the pressure zone. BTC's current price is about 62523, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.69%, ranging from 61174 to 62882. ETH's current price is about 1756, with a 24-hour increase of about 3.37%, ranging from 1693 to 1773. ETH's short-term strength continues to exceed BTC's. Altcoins can be observed offensively today, but it is not a day for full-scale chasing. The core is to see whether BTC can hold above the daily middle Bollinger Band and whether ETH can maintain its 4-hour bullish structure.

BTC: The 1-hour price is around 62523, above MA20 (~62006) and MA50 (~61425). The Bollinger upper band is about 62745, and the price has approached the upper band in the short term. The MACD red histogram has shrunk from about 77.55 to about 60.85, indicating a slowdown in momentum. The 4-hour price is above MA20 (~60597) and MA50 (~60154), with the Bollinger upper band around 63185. The MACD red histogram has slightly expanded, and the rebound structure remains. The daily chart has reclaimed MA20 (~62265), but volume is below the 20-day average. The weekly chart is still below MA20, and the monthly chart remains in a recovery phase. Short-term support: 62200~62300; strong support: 61150~61300. Short-term resistance: 62880~63180; strong resistance: 63800~64200. Today's key watershed: 62200~62300. If held, the recovery is likely to continue; if it falls back below 62200, short-term oscillation is expected.

ETH: The 1-hour price is about 1756, above MA20 (~1735) and MA50 (~1692). The Bollinger upper band is about 1769. The MACD red histogram has weakened from positive to about -0.31, indicating a slowdown at highs. The 4-hour price is above MA20 (~1656) and MA50 (~1609), with the Bollinger upper band about 1783. The MACD red histogram remains elevated, and the structure is stronger than BTC's. The daily chart has reclaimed MA20 (~1673), and volume is above the 20-day average, with recovery quality continuing to outperform BTC. However, the weekly and monthly charts remain below medium- and long-term moving averages, so this can only be treated as a phased rebound. Short-term support: 1735~1740; strong support: 1690~1700. Short-term resistance: 1770~1783; strong resistance: 1828~1848. Today's key watershed: 1735~1740. If held, altcoin resilience remains; if it falls back below 1735, chasing capital should cool down.

Today's Altcoin Linkage Judgment: Altcoins are inclined toward offense today, but only suitable for observing strong directions, not for chasing after a surge. When BTC holds 62200~62300 and ETH holds 1735~1740, the market still has room for rotation and recovery. If ETH continues to outperform BTC, small-cap coins will be more active. Conversely, if BTC fails to break above 63180 with volume and pulls back, or if ETH falls back below 1735, altcoins can easily shift from catch-up rallies to a reversal. When ETH underperforms BTC, altcoin resilience tends to be suppressed. Today, ETH should be the core reference for risk appetite.

Public Version Operating Principles: Do not chase highs; first wait for confirmation of key support. If BTC holds above 63180 and ETH holds above 1783, then the recovery can be considered sustained. If they break below their respective watersheds, altcoins should be reduced first for defense. The public version only provides market direction, key levels, and linkage judgments. For the complete observation pool and individual coin strategies, refer to the subscription newsletter or group documents.

Risk Warning: The above content is only market speculation and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; pay attention to position sizing and stop-losses.