Next Direction for ETH

I. Overall Trend Judgment

1. Large cycle (daily): The medium-term bearish channel remains unbroken, the ETH/BTC ratio continues to weaken, capital is flowing to BTC first for safety, and ETH's rebound is mostly technical, with no reversal signal for bulls;

2. Short-term (4-hour): A slight rebound after earlier oversold conditions, but the rebound volume is insufficient, with dense selling pressure above; the trend is entirely correlated with BTC, and if BTC weakens, ETH's decline amplifies;

3. Two scenarios:

- Bearish baseline: The rebound fails at resistance and falls back, repeatedly testing the support zone below;

- Short-term repair: Only a breakout above the 1700 level with volume would open up room for a phased rebound.

II. Resistance Levels (top to bottom, gradual selling pressure during rebounds)

1. Short-term first resistance (daily strong selling pressure): 1630–1650 USDT
Concentration area of the 4-hour MA20 and short-term trapped positions; the rebound is highly likely to face pressure and fall back here, making it the preferred range for shorting with light positions at higher levels.

2. Medium-term watershed resistance: 1700 USDT
A key level at the daily 20-day moving average. Only if two consecutive 4-hour candles close above 1700 with volume can the medium-term downtrend be temporarily paused, with a rebound target of 1780–1800; if it spikes and falls back to close below 1700, the bearish trend continues.

3. Strong bull reversal resistance: 1780–1800 USDT
The top edge of the recent month's range; only a sustained volume breakout above this zone would shift to a phased bullish market.

III. Support Levels (near to far, buying support zones)

1. Intraday short-term support: 1548–1560 USDT
A small zone where multiple recent declines have stopped and rebounded; short-term bulls' first line of defense; if held, the range-bound oscillation between 1550–1650 continues; a rapid breakdown leads directly to testing the 1500 level.

2. Medium-term core strong support: 1500–1505 USDT (key)
A 60-day low and historically dense bottom-fishing area; this is the most important psychological support in the current decline;

- Hold above 1500: The large range-bound pattern remains intact, allowing for a rebound play;

- Effective breakdown (4-hour close below 1500): Opens up further downside, with the next level at 1410–1430.

3. Extreme downside ultimate support: 1410–1430 USDT
The dense bottom accumulation zone from the previous decline; only a systemic panic in the broader market would trigger a test of this area.

IV. Simple Trading Range Ideas

1. Range-bound market (mainstream): 1550–1640, sell high, buy low

- Near 1630–1650, short on resistance;

- When falling back to around 1550 and stabilizing, lightly long with a stop loss below 1545.

2. Breakout tracking:

- Volume breakout above 1700: Go long in the trend direction, target 1780;

- Breakdown below 1500: Go short in the trend direction, target 1430.