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BNP Paribas: The likelihood of the Fed taking action in July has decreased.

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ME News, July 4 (UTC+8): Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, said: "If the non-farm payrolls in July are very strong, close to or exceeding 130k, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates still holds." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the nonfarm payrolls report. The market still expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until at least December. Regarding the European Central Bank, Lago said: "The baseline expectation is still for another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that members of the Governing Council who spoke at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not making this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation may accelerate again. Even so, she believes consumer prices in regions outside those affected by energy will not face pressure. (Source: Jinshi)
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