July 3, 2026 ETH Objective and Complete Market Analysis

Important Risk Warning

1. Domestic Regulatory Red Line: China explicitly prohibits virtual currency trading, speculation, and exchange for RMB. Virtual currency transactions are not protected by law and carry risks of fund freezing, fraud, and property loss. The following content is only an objective interpretation of market data and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.
2. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and leveraged contracts carry extremely high liquidation risk. Ordinary investors are advised not to participate.

I. Today's Basic Market Data (July 3)

1. Current Price Range: $1695–$1736, with a slight pullback after hitting an intraday high of $1736. The current price is approximately $1710, with a 24-hour increase of +4.8%.
2. 24-Hour Volatility: Low of $1694, high of $1736. Intraday movement reflects a rebound after oversold conditions.
3. Volume and Capital:
- 24-hour spot trading volume is approximately $1.46 billion, and contract trading volume exceeds $31 billion, indicating intense leveraged market speculation.
- Total ETH contract liquidations in the past 24 hours amount to approximately $58.35 million, with concentrated short covering driving this round of rebound.
4. Market Cap: Circulating market cap is approximately $205 billion, with 120.68 million ETH in circulation; the ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.0277, near a 3-year low, underperforming Bitcoin.
5. Macro Environment: Bitcoin has stabilized at $61,600–$61,800 today, up 0.8%. Federal Reserve officials have signaled easing inflation, which is dovish, driving a slight recovery across risk assets in the broader market.

II. Technical Analysis (Short-term + Daily)

1. Short-term Hourly Level (Intraday)

- Support Zone: First strong support at $1680–$1695 (intraday launch platform, short-term moving average cluster); secondary support at $1650.
- Resistance Zone: First resistance at $1725–$1736 (today's intraday high, concentrated trapped selling pressure); medium-term strong resistance at $1750 and $1780.
- Indicators: Hourly chart MACD shows a death cross, with weakening upward momentum; short-term movement is a volatile digestion after the rebound, with no sustained volume breakout signal.

2. Daily Level (Medium-term Trend)

1. Overall Trend: Three consecutive quarters of closing in the red, with a cumulative decline of over 32% in 2026. The medium to long-term trend remains in a downward channel. This rebound is purely technical and oversold, not a reversal of the downtrend structure.
2. Key Moving Average: Price remains below the 200-day moving average ($1780), confirming the medium-term bearish pattern remains unchanged.
3. Oversold Recovery Signal: The RSI previously fell below 25, indicating severe oversold conditions. The KDJ bottom golden cross triggered this round of recovery, but no incremental capital followed up on the rebound.
4. Turning Point: Only a daily close above $1780 could open space for a medium-term rebound. If the price breaks below $1680 support, the rebound ends, and the market returns to bottoming, with key support at the $1550–$1580 range.

III. Key Drivers for Today's Price Increase (Bullish)

1. Macro Sentiment Improvement
Federal Reserve officials' remarks on easing inflation have increased market bets on a rate cut in September. The dollar has slightly weakened, risk assets have rebounded collectively, and BTC has driven ETH to recover in tandem.
2. Short-term Short Squeeze from Oversold Conditions
At the end of June, ETH experienced a sharp decline, with whales selling off and ETF outflows. Short positions accumulated in the market. Today's price surge triggered a large number of short stop-losses, creating a short-term squeeze.
3. On-chain Bottom-fishing Signals
Glassnode data shows that when the price dropped to the $1550–$1600 range, long-term whale addresses continued to accumulate ETH. Short-term selling pressure has been released in phases, opening a window for a technical rebound.

IV. Key Bearish Factors Suppressing ETH's Long-term Bull Run (All Currently Present)