7.3 Market Analysis - Brief Update

Trend Direction: Bullish Continuation

Technical Analysis:

Yesterday's target levels were basically all reached. BTC came within less than $300 of yesterday's target of 62466, and ETH broke through the target of 1712. Regardless, those who read the article yesterday and followed the trades should have taken profits smoothly.

Personally, the afternoon's "unnecessary" swing trade (taking profit below the resistance at 1656, then planning to re-enter long during the night session but not getting the chance) resulted in missing out on the short-term position... However, the trend position was held to the ideal level for profit-taking, so the overall returns from the three positions yesterday were quite satisfactory.

Today, U.S. stock markets are closed, so news and data will have less impact on the technical formation of the chart. Also, next week, aside from Monday's release of the U.S. June S&P Global Services PMI, there are no further data releases.

BTC

Today, we will still focus on analyzing ETH, and just briefly discuss BTC.

The upward channel has fully opened. The nearby key resistances above are around 62466 and 62981. Once these two levels are broken, we can set the target for this round of upward movement around 65623. This level is not only the lower edge of the resistance zone 65623-67735 but also a confluence level with the daily EMA50, so its resistance strength is relatively strong.

The article on July 1 mentioned that the ETH exchange rate showed a tendency toward a W pattern. After yesterday's and today's rally, it's clear that the W pattern has formed. However, along with the rise, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has also reached the confluence level of the daily MA90 and resistance line (as shown in the chart). Therefore, a catch-up rally for BTC may be coming next.

ETH

As speculated yesterday, due to today's U.S. stock market closure, the volatility was concentrated in the period around yesterday's Nonfarm Payrolls release.

ETH's strength exceeded expectations. I personally expected yesterday's high to be around 1712, but in the end, whether it was 1656, 1674, 1686, or 1712, all the resistance levels that had pressure were broken through without any resistance. After such a strong move, there is usually continuation of the upward trend.

However, it is worth noting that as the market enters the weekend, whether the upward momentum can continue remains questionable. Although my personal trading bias still sees ultimate targets around 1842 and 1893, we still need to respect the price action on the chart. After all, after entering the weekend, volatility tends to slow down most of the time, and a slow oscillation after a significant breakout could allow large capital to switch between long and short positions, leading to a decline. Therefore, I will maintain my bullish trading bias while paying attention to the price behavior on the chart to make judgments.

The upper boundary of the upward channel that ETH started on June 26 has been completely broken. If there is an opportunity in the night session to retest the upper boundary (around 1692), I will continue to rebuild long positions in the trend position, and enter long positions in the short-term position on the right side after stabilization. The 1692 area is also the 12H EMA50 level. After breaking this level, a retest will provide strong confluence support. Therefore, if this level is reached, the probability of winning on a left-side long is relatively high.

Comprehensive Analysis:

To summarize, under my trading bias, the target for BTC in this round is around 65623, and for ETH, the first target is around 1842 and the second target is around 1893.

My trading habit is to first determine the trend. For the trend position, I gradually build it with low leverage to ensure room for error without missing the move. For the short-term position, I look at the longer timeframe to trade short-term swings, mainly capturing short-term swings in the direction of the trend. For example, if the trend is bullish, I mainly take long swings. Currently, it is clearly still a bullish trend. Before a clear reversal pattern appears, both the trend position and the short-term position will be mainly long, with the former using left-side trading and the latter using right-side trading.