U.S. nonfarm jobs shock delivers a boost, helping BTC hold steady at $61,000; spot ETFs attract $220 million, ending ten consecutive days of declines.

“Bad news is good news” plays out again in the crypto market! According to foreign media reported today (the 3rd), the June nonfarm payrolls data released on the eve of U.S. Independence Day came in far below expectations, successfully easing the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s ongoing tightening pressure from rate hikes. Risk assets saw a relief rebound: Bitcoin (BTC) surged back to firmly reclaim the $61,000 support level, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded inflows of more than $220 million at once, ending a 10-day streak of heavy outflows.
(Background: Fidelity Global Macro Director: Bitcoin recently approached “Power Law support”; the rebound catalyst has not yet appeared)
(Background supplement: JPMorgan: Strategy’s new policy introduces two-way risk to the Bitcoin market)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Nonfarm payrolls surprise eases rate-hike panic, BTC and ETH jointly recover lost ground
• ETF dip-buying returns; options market regains a positive slope
• Hawkish hidden risks beneath a dovish surface: institutions warn against excessive optimism

After a June filled with chilling pressure, the crypto market finally found a bit of breathing room on the eve of the U.S. Independence Day (July 4) holiday. According to a market report released on July 3, 2026 by analyst Naga Avan-Nomayo, the biggest driver behind this relief rebound was U.S. macroeconomic data that came in far below expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls surprise eases rate-hike panic, BTC and ETH jointly recover lost ground

Earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly fell below the $58,000 level amid market panic, dropping as low as around $57,700. However, after U.S. June nonfarm payrolls (NFP) added only 57,000 jobs (far below economists’ expectations of 114,000), the weak report immediately triggered Wall Street’s trading logic of “bad news is good news.” Expectations for further Fed rate hikes were subsequently cooled (the probability of a rate hike by year-end fell from 85% to 77%), prompting capital to once again embrace risk assets.

Fueled by this, Bitcoin quickly surged and has now firmly held the $61,000 line. Ethereum (ETH)’s performance was even stronger: it not only successfully reclaimed the $1,700 level, but also rebounded nearly 10% from this week’s low, fully defusing the crisis of breaking down and piercing through the $1,500 support level.

ETF dip-buying returns; options market regains a positive slope

The rebound in the spot market was also directly reflected in the flow of institutional funds. In just the past June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs faced their worst selling since listing in January 2024, with total redemptions reaching about $2.4 billion. However, on Thursday after the NFP data was released, spot ETFs saw strong net inflows of about over $220 million, successfully ending 10 consecutive days of capital outflows, indicating that long-term dip-buyers have started to return.

In the derivatives market, panic sentiment also clearly cooled. Short-term implied volatility (IV) dropped sharply; one-week ATM (at-the-money) volatility fell from above 40 to the 30s. At the same time, the options term structure returned to a positive slope (Contango), favorable for option sellers. Although the premium for protective put options still exists, it is far less extreme than in the previous few days.

Hawkish hidden risks beneath a dovish surface: institutions warn against excessive optimism

While bulls are celebrating the softness in employment data, some research institutions—including QCP Capital—have issued warnings. Analysts pointed out that this report is essentially “more noise than signal.” It may look dovish on the surface, but upon closer inspection of the internal data, it contains loopholes that could keep the Fed hawkish:

| Data indicator | | --- | | Surface-level “dovish” interpretation (bullish) | | Hidden “hawkish” risk (bearish) | | --- | --- | | The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% | | The decline suggests the economy is not entering a severe recession. | | The drop is mainly due to a “decline in labor force participation,” meaning labor supply is shrinking rather than business demand being strong. | | Wage growth and consumption | | Fewer jobs should theoretically suppress inflation. | | Wages are actually accelerating, and end-consumer demand remains strong, which could become fuel for inflation to flare back up. | | The Fed Chair’s stance | | It is expected to abandon rate hikes as economic data weakens. | | The newly appointed chair, Kevin Warsh, may lean toward taking a tough hawkish position early in his term to establish credibility against inflation. |

Due to the U.S. Independence Day market closure over the weekend, market liquidity will be significantly lower. Analysts expect Bitcoin to maintain a two-way choppy consolidation and washout pattern over the next few days. The real battleground for the macro economy will be the upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) to be released on July 14 and the PPI (Producer Price Index) on July 15. At that time, these two key inflation reports will provide the clearest guidance direction for the Fed’s monetary policy in the second half of the year.