South Korean stock market rose 5% after a turbulent week due to AI volatility; I believe this is a technical oversold rebound, not a trend reversal.

In two days, it fell nearly 10%, with KOSPI dropping 7.89% in a single day, Samsung down 9%, and SK Hynix down 14.6%. It was already oversold, so some people bottom-fishing today is normal.
But the logic that triggered this crash, i.e., the signal of Meta building its own computing power plus leasing it out, has not disappeared. The fact that former big customers have become competitors will not be fully priced in just because of a one-day rebound.
The logic across the four markets is the same chain.
🍀 The U.S. stock market is the starting gun.
As soon as the Meta signal came out, CoreWeave fell 14% in a single day, MU fell 5%, and the hardware AI sector on the Nasdaq was collectively repriced. This selling pressure directly transmitted to Asia.
🍀 South Korea is the epicenter.
The Korean won broke below 1550, hitting a new low since 2009, with foreign capital voting with their feet. SK Hynix and Samsung's businesses are highly dependent on these big customers, so they fell the most. Today's rebound is because the drop was overshooting, but the pressure on the won exchange rate remains, and the logic of foreign capital outflow has not fundamentally changed.
🍀 Hong Kong stocks followed with tremors.
The Hang Seng Index had already fallen below 26,000, with the tech sector under pressure. This round of AI divergence has a sustained impact on Hong Kong's AI concept stocks. Stocks like Tencent and Alibaba with AI business narratives will continue to fluctuate with U.S. market sentiment.
🍀 A-shares are relatively independent but didn't escape either.
The STAR 50 index fell sharply by 3% last week; whether it can recover today depends on today's market action. However, some analysts have pointed out that A-share tech leaders still follow the cues from U.S. and Korean stocks, with limited space for independent narratives. The AI conference in mid-July is the next local catalyst, but the risk of early pricing also exists.
🤔 Is this wave of AI skepticism justified?
Yes, but it has been amplified.
Demand is fine; Yageo is still raising prices, AMD raised GPU shipment prices for the second time in six months, and upstream supply and demand remain tight. The problem is how profits are divided. After the big companies started building their own, the bargaining power of midstream service providers has weakened. This is structural and cannot be digested in a quarter or two.
Two time dimensions are being priced simultaneously in the market. Short-term is trading the immediate impact of the Meta signal, while medium-term is still betting on the overall direction of the AI supercycle. South Korea's 5% rebound today shows that short-term panic is calming, but the medium-term repricing is far from complete.
Today, BTC is the most relaxed one. After the nonfarm payroll miss, rate cut expectations opened up, at $61K, moving independently in the opposite direction of AI stocks. AI stocks are in chaos, but the macro side can first breathe a sigh of relief.
DYOR Not investment advice.