The South Korean stock market rose 5% after a turbulent week driven by AI volatility. I believe this is a technical oversold rebound, not a trend reversal.

It fell nearly 10% in two days, with the KOSPI dropping 7.89% in a single day, Samsung falling 9%, and SK Hynix down 14.6%. The decline was already overdone, so it's normal for some to bottom-fish today.

But the logic that triggered this crash—namely the signal of Meta building its own computing power and leasing it out—has not disappeared. The fact that former big clients have become competitors won't be fully priced in just because of one day's rebound.

The logic across the four markets is the same chain.

🍀The US stock market fired the starting gun.

As soon as Meta's signal came out, CoreWeave fell 14% in a single day, MU dropped 5%, and the Nasdaq hardware AI sector underwent a collective repricing. This selling pressure directly transmitted to Asia.

🍀South Korea is the epicenter.

The Korean won broke below 1550, hitting a new low since 2009. Foreign capital is voting with its feet. SK Hynix and Samsung's businesses are heavily dependent on these big clients, so they fell the hardest. Today's rebound is because the drop was too overshot, but the pressure on the won exchange rate remains, and the logic of foreign capital outflows has not fundamentally changed.

🍀Hong Kong stocks also shook.

The Hang Seng Index had already broken below 26,000, with the tech sector under pressure. This round of AI divergence has a sustained impact on Hong Kong's AI concept stocks. Stocks like Tencent and Alibaba, which have AI business narratives, will continue to fluctuate with US stock market sentiment.

🍀A-shares are relatively independent but didn't escape either.

The STAR 50 had a sharp drop of 3% last week. Whether it can recover today depends on the intraday market. But some analysts accurately pointed out that A-share tech leaders still need to follow the lead of US and Korean stocks, with limited space for independent narratives. The mid-July AI conference is the next local catalyst, but the risk of front-running exists.

🤔Is this wave of AI skepticism justified?

Yes, but it's been exaggerated.

Demand is fine—Yageo is still raising prices, and AMD has raised GPU shipment prices for the second time in six months. Supply chain tensions upstream remain. The issue is how profits are divided. After the big players build their own, the bargaining power of midstream service providers weakens. This is structural and won't be digested in a quarter or two.

The market is pricing in two time dimensions simultaneously. The short term is trading the immediate impact of Meta's signal, while the medium term is still betting on the overall direction of the AI mega-cycle. South Korea's 5% rebound today shows that short-term panic is subsiding, but the medium-term repricing is far from complete.

Today, BTC was the easiest. After the NFP miss, rate cut expectations opened up. $61K, moving independently in the opposite direction of AI stocks. AI stocks are in turmoil, but the macro side can breathe a sigh of relief for now.

DYOR Not financial advice